Arouca x Estrela Betting tips for May 5 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Arouca x Estrela, Sunday, 5/5/2024

📅 5/5/2024 17:00

Arouca 1.95

X 3.60

Estrela 3.50

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Arouca x Estrela:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Arouca x Estrela

Important information for your tip for Arouca x Estrela: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Arouca in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $855.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Estrela in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 6 Arouca matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Arouca conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Arouca is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 home matches, it had at least 62.00% of possession. 👉 In the last 3 road matches, Estrela has not lost any of them.

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Arouca x Estrela?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2024, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Arouca x Estrela:

Analysis from Arouca x Estrela for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 5 of May

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Arouca x Estrela right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1111522 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Arouca x Estrela

Should you bet on Arouca?

🔵 Arouca: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 50.37%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.95. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 500 times – this would give you a profit of $475.00
• And would have lost other 500 times – with a loss of -$500.00 because of them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$25.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.01%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 260 times – profiting $676.00;
• And would lose other 740 times – having a loss of -$740.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$64.00.

Should you bet on Estrela?

🔴 Estrela: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 23.61%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 240 times – profiting $600.00;
• And would lose other 760 times – having a loss of -$760.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$160.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Arouca x Estrela

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Arouca
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Arouca x Estrela

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 Arouca, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Arouca.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Arouca.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Arouca x Estrela

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.