Estoril x Arouca Betting tips for October 26 in Portugal Primeira Liga
📅 26/10/2024 14:30 |
Estoril 2.90 |
X 3.20 |
Arouca 2.40 |
This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Estoril x Arouca:
🔮 Arouca wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Arouca, you can win up to $1200.00!
The main points for the tip for Estoril x Arouca: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Estoril in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-255.0. |
Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Estoril x Arouca?
If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Estoril x Arouca, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2024. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:
Analysis from Estoril x Arouca for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 26 of October
🏟️ Estoril X Arouca – Portugal Primeira Liga |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Estoril x Arouca right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1208103 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Estoril x Arouca
Is it worth betting on Estoril?
🔵 Estoril: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 22.03% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.90. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 220 times – profiting $418.00;
- And would lose other 780 times – losing -$780.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$362.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.32% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 250 times – profiting $550.00;
- And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$200.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Arouca?
🔴 Arouca: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 52.65% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 530 times – having a profit of $742.00;
- And would lose other 470 times – having a loss of -$470.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$272.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Estoril x Arouca
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.25 Estoril
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Estoril x Arouca
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +1.25 Estoril, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Estoril.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 1.00. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Arouca.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Estoril x Arouca
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.