Estrela x Nacional Betting tips for November 10 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Estrela x Nacional, Sunday, 10/11/2024

📅 10/11/2024 15:30

Estrela 2.25

X 3.20

Nacional 3.20

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Estrela x Nacional:

🔮 Tied Match
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Important information for your tip for Estrela x Nacional: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Estrela in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-220.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Nacional in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Estrela scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Estrela matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Estrela conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Nacional conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 It is not a good time for Nacional as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from Estrela x Nacional for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 10 of November

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Estrela and Nacional.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1218874 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Estrela x Nacional

Should you bet on Estrela?

🔵 Estrela: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 34.93% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 350 times – this would give you a profit of $437.50
• And would have lost other 650 times – with a loss of -$650.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$212.50.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 39.36%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 390 times – having a profit of $858.00;
• And would lose other 610 times – having a loss of -$610.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$248.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Nacional?

🔴 Nacional: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 25.71%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $572.00;
• And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$168.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Estrela x Nacional

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Estrela
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Estrela x Nacional

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Estrela, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Estrela. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Estrela x Nacional

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.