Puebla x Cruz Azul Betting tips for October 19 in Mexico Liga MX

Our betting tip for Puebla x Cruz Azul, Saturday, 19/10/2024

📅 19/10/2024 03:05

Puebla 5.36

X 4.20

Cruz Azul 1.51

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Puebla x Cruz Azul:

🔮 Cruz Azul wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Cruz Azul, you can win up to $755.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

The main points for the tip for Puebla x Cruz Azul: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Puebla in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-300.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Cruz Azul in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $61.0. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Puebla scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Cruz Azul scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 Puebla matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 Cruz Azul matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Puebla conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Cruz Azul conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Puebla conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Cruz Azul.

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Analysis from Puebla x Cruz Azul for the Mexico Liga MX – 19 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Puebla x Cruz Azul right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1203336 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Puebla x Cruz Azul

Is it worth betting on Puebla?

🔵 Puebla: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 8.38% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.36. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 80 times – this would give you a profit of $348.80
• And would have lost other 920 times – with a loss of -$920.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$571.20.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 10.0%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 100 times – profiting $320.00;
• And would have lost other 900 times – with a loss of -$900.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$580.00.

Should you bet on Cruz Azul?

🔴 Cruz Azul: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 81.62% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.51. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 820 times – this would give you a profit of $418.20
• And would lose other 180 times – losing -$180.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$238.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Puebla x Cruz Azul

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 Puebla
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Puebla x Cruz Azul

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +1.0 Puebla, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +1.0 Puebla.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Puebla x Cruz Azul

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.