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Home Β» Predictions Β» Queretaro x Atlas Betting tips for April 17 in Mexico Liga MX
Thursday, 17 April 2025, 01h00 Mexico Liga MX
Queretaro Queretaro
PREDICTION No tip
Atlas Atlas
Don't miss this prediction!

Queretaro x Atlas Betting tips for April 17 in Mexico Liga MX

Our betting tip for Queretaro x Atlas, Thursday, 17/4/2025
πŸ“… 17/4/2025
01:00
Queretaro Queretaro
2.87
X
3.15
Atlas Atlas
2.45

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Queretaro x Atlas:

πŸ‘Ž Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Queretaro x Atlas

The main points for the tip for Queretaro x Atlas:

πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Queretaro in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $202.0.
πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Atlas in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-150.0.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 5 matches as the home team, Queretaro scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 3 Queretaro matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 matches as the away team, Atlas conceded at least 2 goal(s).

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Summary

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Analysis from Queretaro x Atlas for the Mexico Liga MX – 17 of April

🏟️ Queretaro X Atlas – Mexico Liga MX
πŸ“… 17 of April, 2025 – 01:00
πŸ”΅ Queretaro – Winning probability: 25.89% | Fair line: 3.86
βšͺ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 28.92% | Fair line: 3.46
πŸ”΄ Atlas – Winning probability: 45.19% | Fair line: 2.21
βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: 0.0 Queretaro
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
β›³ Expected corner kicks: 10.25 corner kicks

When the best bet on Queretaro x Atlas is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1305181 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Queretaro x Atlas

Is it a good idea to bet on Queretaro?

πŸ”΅ Queretaro: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.89% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.87. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 260 times – profiting $486.20;
  • And would lose other 740 times – having a loss of -$740.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of πŸ’°-$253.80.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

βšͺ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 28.92% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.15. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 290 times – profiting $623.50;
  • And would lose other 710 times – having a loss of -$710.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$86.50.

Is betting on Atlas worth it?

πŸ”΄ Atlas: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 45.19%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.45. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 450 times – this would give you a profit of $652.50
  • And would lose other 550 times – losing -$550.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just πŸ’°$102.50, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Queretaro x Atlas

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: 0.0 Queretaro
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1Γ—2 market for Queretaro x Atlas

βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Queretaro, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Queretaro.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1Γ—2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Queretaro x Atlas

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by
Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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