Santos Laguna x Puebla Betting tips for February 2 in Mexico Liga MX

Our betting tip for Santos Laguna x Puebla, Sunday, 2/2/2025

📅 2/2/2025 23:00

Santos Laguna 2.24

X 3.40

Puebla 3.04

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Santos Laguna x Puebla:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Santos Laguna x Puebla

The main points for the tip for Santos Laguna x Puebla: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Santos Laguna in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Puebla in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Puebla, Santos Laguna scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Puebla matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Puebla conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Santos Laguna has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Puebla playing at home.

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Analysis from Santos Laguna x Puebla for the Mexico Liga MX – 2 of February

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Santos Laguna x Puebla right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1255527 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Santos Laguna x Puebla

Is it worth betting on Santos Laguna?

🔵 Santos Laguna: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 39.46% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.24. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 390 times – this would give you a profit of $483.60
• And would lose other 610 times – having a loss of -$610.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$126.40.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 29.33% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 290 times – profiting $696.00;
• And would lose other 710 times – losing -$710.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$14.00.

Is betting on Puebla worth it?

🔴 Puebla: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 31.21% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.04. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 310 times – profiting $632.40;
• And would lose other 690 times – losing -$690.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$57.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Santos Laguna x Puebla

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Santos Laguna
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Santos Laguna x Puebla

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Santos Laguna and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Santos Laguna.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Santos Laguna x Puebla

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.