Tigres UANL x Cruz Azul Betting tips for December 7 in Mexico Liga MX

Our betting tip for Tigres UANL x Cruz Azul, Sunday, 7/12/2025

📅 7/12/2025 03:10

Tigres UANL 2.05

X 3.30

Cruz Azul 3.30

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Tigres UANL x Cruz Azul:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Tigres UANL x Cruz Azul

The main points for the tip for Tigres UANL x Cruz Azul:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Tigres UANL in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $89.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Cruz Azul in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-345.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Tigres UANL scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Cruz Azul, Tigres UANL scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Tigres UANL conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Cruz Azul.
👉 Tigres UANL is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 In the last 4 road matches, Cruz Azul has not lost any of them.
👉 Tigres UANL has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Cruz Azul playing at home.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul:

Lets analyze the match between Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul, which will take place at Estadio Universitario, the official home of Tigres, known as “El Volcán,” a stadium with a strong atmosphere for the home team. 🏟️

📈 Looking at recent statistics, Tigres UANL has a very solid home performance: scored 16 goals in the last 5 games at their stadium and only conceded 5. Additionally, they won 4 of these games and lost none. The ball possession average is high (56%), with more shots (19) and accurate shots (7) per game at home compared to Cruz Azul away (13 shots and 5 accurate shots). This shows Tigres offensive dominance when playing on their turf.

Cruz Azul shows more modest numbers away from home: scored an average fewer goals (1 per game), also conceded about 1 goal per away match, with fewer recent wins away from their stadium. Moreover, they face significant issues such as the absence of starting goalkeeper Kevin Mier due to a serious injury — this could negatively impact their defense.

Median odds indicate a slight advantage for the home team with odds around 2.08 for Tigres victory versus approximately 3.26 for Cruz Azul or a draw at around 3.28.

After normalizing the implied probabilities of median odds, we get something close to:

• Tigres UANL win: ~45%
• Draw: ~14%
• Cruz Azul win: ~41%

However, considering tactical and emotional context — Tigres need to overturn an aggregate deficit in the Liguilla Apertura semi-final after a recent draw against the same opponent; they have experienced attackers like Gignac and Correa; while Cruz Azul faces extra pressure due to the goalkeeper injury — my adjusted estimate favors the home team even more:

• Tigres UANL win: ~50%
• Draw: ~25%
• Cruz Azul win: ~25%

Thus, fair odds would be approximately:

• Tigres UANL – fair odds ≈ 2.00
• Draw – fair odds ≈ 4.00
• Cruz Azul – fair odds ≈ 4.00

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers (2 for home; 3.5 draw; 3.5 away), there is value in betting on Tigres victory because it aligns with my fair probabilities and offers a competitive return.

Evaluating the expected value calculated by the Bets Kenya model, which indicates negative EV across all options (-2% to -12%), I disagree with this pessimistic view of the home team given the favorable recent statistics and squad news.

Suggestion: Bet on Tigres UANL victory, as besides their superior offensive stats at home, they have extra motivation due to the urgent need to win this semi-final playing in front of their passionate fans at Estadio Universitario (“El Volcán”). The estimated positive EV is above +5%, indicating a good opportunity!

📰 News reinforce this analysis showing that despite the initial balance between the teams in the first leg of the semi-finals (1-1 draw), Cruz Azuls defensive problems due to the serious injury of their starting goalkeeper could weigh heavily in this crucial decision;

#BoraTigreeees #LigaMX #ApuestaDeValor ⚽🔥💰

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Tigres UANL x Cruz Azul?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Tigres UANL x Cruz Azul, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Tigres UANL x Cruz Azul for the Mexico Liga MX – 7 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Tigres UANL x Cruz Azul right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1449456 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news on the match between Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul

Tigres UANL: Tigres UANL entered the Apertura 2025 Liguilla in great form, finishing second in the regular season and facing Tijuanas Xolos in the quarter-finals, where they need to overturn a 3-0 first-leg deficit and win the second leg by at least four goals to reach the semi-finals; the clubs attacking lineup for the home match includes Nicolás Ibáñez, André-Pierre Gignac, Diego Lainez, Ángel Correa, and Juan Brunetta, while Joaquim Pereira and Javier Aquino remain unavailable. After advancing, the Tigres drew 1-1 with Cruz Azul in the first leg of the semi-finals on December 3, 2025, with goals from Ángel Correa for the Felinos and Gabriel Fernández for Cruz Azul, and will play the decisive second leg on December 6, 2025, at Estadio Universitario, needing a win or a favorable aggregate result to reach the final.

Cruz Azul: Cruz Azul is currently involved in a tight semi-final of the Apertura 2025 Liguilla against Tigres UANL, having drawn 1-1 in the first game at Estadio Olímpico Universitario and now needing a favorable result in the second leg at El Volcán to reach the final; the club also faces a crisis in the goalkeeper position after starter Kevin Mier suffered a tibia fracture that will sideline him for the rest of the season, prompting president Víctor Velázquez to publicly criticize Adalberto Carrasquilla of Pumas over the incident. Off the field, the team is linked to a possible January signing of free Colombian forward Miguel Borja, which may require releasing the foreign player spot currently held by Argentine forward Rodolfo Rotondi. Meanwhile, Chivas has shown interest in acquiring Cruz Azuls forward Ángel Sepúlveda for Clausura 2026, a deal that could lead to Teun Wilke leaving the club if finalized.

Table analysis for the game between Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul

Tigres UANL: Tigres is in 2nd place with 36 points, just behind Toluca which leads with 37 points. The competition is very tight at the top of the table, and this match could be decisive for Tigres to try to take the lead in the championship. This makes the game a crucial opportunity to stay in the fight for the title and secure the best position in the final stretch. The number of points accumulated and the current position show that the team needs to earn points to avoid losing ground.

Cruz Azul: Cruz Azul is right behind, in 3rd place, with 35 points, just one point behind Tigres. Like Tigres, this game is very important for Cruz Azul to stay in the race for the leadership and the title, as well as to confirm their spot in the playoffs. The small points difference makes this confrontation almost a direct duel, where victory will be essential to keep the team in the top positions and with good chances in the decisive phase of the championship.

Summary: This match is extremely important for both teams, as they are very close in the standings and seeking the championship leadership. Additionally, it serves to guarantee or improve their position for the playoffs, with both teams motivated. A true six-point game! ⚽🔥

Tips for the 1×2 market for Tigres UANL x Cruz Azul

Is betting on Tigres UANL worth it?

🔵 Tigres UANL: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 52.02% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.05. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 520 times – having a profit of $546.00;
• And would lose other 480 times – having a loss of -$480.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$66.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 23.61%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 240 times – having a profit of $552.00;
• And would lose other 760 times – losing -$760.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$208.00.

Should you bet on Cruz Azul?

🔴 Cruz Azul: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 24.37% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 240 times – this would give you a profit of $552.00
• And would lose other 760 times – having a loss of -$760.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$208.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Tigres UANL x Cruz Azul

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Tigres UANL
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Tigres UANL x Cruz Azul

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Tigres UANL, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Tigres UANL. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Tigres UANL x Cruz Azul

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.