Toluca x Santos Laguna Betting tips for April 7 in Mexico Liga MX

Our betting tip for Toluca x Santos Laguna, Monday, 7/4/2025

📅 7/4/2025 00:00

Toluca 1.18

X 6.62

Santos Laguna 10.75

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Toluca x Santos Laguna:

🔮 Toluca wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Toluca, you can win up to $590.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Toluca x Santos Laguna: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Toluca in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $344.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Santos Laguna in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Toluca scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Santos Laguna, Toluca scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Toluca matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Santos Laguna conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Toluca is good playing home: it has 5 wins in a row in its last matches at home. 👉 Toluca has won all the last 4 matches playing at home against Santos Laguna.

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Analysis from Toluca x Santos Laguna for the Mexico Liga MX – 7 of April

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Toluca x Santos Laguna right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1297122 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Toluca x Santos Laguna

Is it a good idea to bet on Toluca?

🔵 Toluca: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 98.67% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.18. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 990 times – profiting $178.20;
• And would lose other 10 times – having a loss of -$10.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$168.20.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 0.91% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 6.62. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 10 times – having a profit of $56.20;
• And would have lost other 990 times – with a loss of -$990.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$933.80.

Is it a good idea to bet on Santos Laguna?

🔴 Santos Laguna: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 0.43% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 10.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 0 times – having a profit of $0.00;
• And would have lost other 1000 times – with a loss of -$1000.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$1000.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Toluca x Santos Laguna

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -2.0 Toluca
⚽ Expected goals: 3.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Toluca x Santos Laguna

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -2.0 Toluca, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -2.0 Toluca. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Toluca x Santos Laguna

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.50 goals.