Brazil x Uruguay Betting tips for November 20 in South America – World Cup Qualifying

Our betting tip for Brazil x Uruguay, Wednesday, 20/11/2024

📅 20/11/2024 00:45

Brazil 1.54

X 3.92

Uruguay 6.00

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Brazil x Uruguay:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Brazil x Uruguay

Some important points for the tip for Brazil x Uruguay: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Brazil in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-244.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Uruguay in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-230.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Brazil scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Uruguay, Brazil scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Uruguay matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Brazil has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Uruguay playing at home.

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Analysis from Brazil x Uruguay for the South America – World Cup Qualifying – 20 of November

When the best bet on Brazil x Uruguay is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1223927 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Brazil x Uruguay

Should you bet on Brazil?

🔵 Brazil: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 62.15% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.54. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 620 times – having a profit of $334.80;
• And would lose other 380 times – losing -$380.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$45.20, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 21.8%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.92. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 220 times – profiting $642.40;
• And would lose other 780 times – losing -$780.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$137.60.

Is it a good idea to bet on Uruguay?

🔴 Uruguay: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 16.05% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 6.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 160 times – this would give you a profit of $800.00
• And would lose other 840 times – losing -$840.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$40.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Brazil x Uruguay

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Brazil
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Brazil x Uruguay

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Brazil, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 Brazil.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.0 Uruguay.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Brazil x Uruguay

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.