Chile x Venezuela Betting tips for November 20 in South America – World Cup Qualifying

Our betting tip for Chile x Venezuela, Wednesday, 20/11/2024

📅 20/11/2024 00:00

Chile 2.00

X 3.20

Venezuela 3.98

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Chile x Venezuela:

🔮 Chile wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Chile, you can win up to $1000.00!

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Important information for your tip for Chile x Venezuela: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Chile in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-317.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Venezuela in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $158.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Venezuela, Chile scored at least 3 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Venezuela matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Chile x Venezuela, with Chile as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Chile conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Chile has won all the last 3 matches playing at home against Venezuela. 👉 It is not a good time for Chile as home team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last home matches.

Looking for another bookie to bet on Chile x Venezuela?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Chile x Venezuela, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2024. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Chile x Venezuela for the South America – World Cup Qualifying – 20 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Chile x Venezuela right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1224921 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Chile x Venezuela

Is it worth betting on Chile?

🔵 Chile: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 57.19% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 570 times – profiting $570.00;
• And would have lost other 430 times – with a loss of -$430.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$140.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 24.26% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 240 times – this would give you a profit of $528.00
• And would lose other 760 times – losing -$760.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$232.00.

Should you bet on Venezuela?

🔴 Venezuela: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 18.55% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.98. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 190 times – having a profit of $566.20;
• And would lose other 810 times – losing -$810.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$243.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match Chile x Venezuela

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Chile
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Chile x Venezuela

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Chile, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Chile.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Venezuela.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Chile x Venezuela

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.