Paraguay x Brazil Betting tips for September 10 in South America – World Cup Qualifying

Our betting tip for Paraguay x Brazil, Tuesday, 10/9/2024

📅 10/9/2024 21:30

Paraguay 5.78

X 3.76

Brazil 1.58

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Paraguay x Brazil:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1880.00!

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The main points for the tip for Paraguay x Brazil: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Brazil in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-225.0. 👉 Playing as the home team, Paraguay conceded at least 2 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Brazil. 👉 In the last 6 road matches, Brazil has not lost any of them.

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Paraguay x Brazil?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2024. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Paraguay x Brazil for the South America – World Cup Qualifying – 10 of September

When the best bet on Paraguay x Brazil is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1178659 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Paraguay x Brazil

Is it a good idea to bet on Paraguay?

🔵 Paraguay: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 5.59%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.78. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 60 times – having a profit of $286.80;
• And would lose other 940 times – losing -$940.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$653.20.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 28.91%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.76. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 290 times – having a profit of $800.40;
• And would lose other 710 times – losing -$710.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$90.40.

Should you bet on Brazil?

🔴 Brazil: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 65.5% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.58. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 660 times – this would give you a profit of $382.80
• And would lose other 340 times – having a loss of -$340.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$42.80 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match Paraguay x Brazil

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Paraguay
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Paraguay x Brazil

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 Paraguay, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +1.0 Paraguay.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +1.0 Paraguay.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Paraguay x Brazil

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.