Peru x Chile Betting tips for November 16 in South America – World Cup Qualifying

Our betting tip for Peru x Chile, Saturday, 16/11/2024

📅 16/11/2024 01:30

Peru 2.48

X 3.06

Chile 2.89

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Peru x Chile:

🔮 Peru wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Peru, you can win up to $1240.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Peru x Chile: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Chile in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 Chile did not score any goals in the last 4 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 5 Peru matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Peru did not receive any yellow cards in the last 3 matches as the home team. 👉 Peru has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Chile playing at home.

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Analysis from Peru x Chile for the South America – World Cup Qualifying – 16 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Peru x Chile right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1221435 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Peru x Chile

Should you bet on Peru?

🔵 Peru: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 46.78% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.48. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 470 times – having a profit of $695.60;
• And would have lost other 530 times – with a loss of -$530.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$165.60.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.93% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.06. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 320 times – having a profit of $659.20;
• And would lose other 680 times – losing -$680.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$20.80.

Is it a good idea to bet on Chile?

🔴 Chile: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.29% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.89. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 210 times – profiting $396.90;
• And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$393.10.

Handicaps analysis for the match Peru x Chile

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Peru
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Peru x Chile

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Peru and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Peru.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Peru.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Peru x Chile

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.