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Home » Predictions » Portugal Primeira Liga » AVS x SC Farense Betting tips for September 30 in Portugal Primeira Liga
Monday, 30 September 2024, 16h15 Portugal Primeira Liga
AVS AVS
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 34% 1 X 2
SC Farense SC Farense
ODD: @3.56 Don't miss this prediction!

AVS x SC Farense Betting tips for September 30 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for AVS x SC Farense, Monday, 30/9/2024
📅 30/9/2024
16:15
AVS AVS
1.92
X
3.56
SC Farense SC Farense
3.77

Our algorithm has selected this tip for AVS x SC Farense:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1780.00!

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Important information for your tip for AVS x SC Farense:

👉 If you had bet $100 on AVS in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $745.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on SC Farense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, AVS scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 AVS matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, SC Farense conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for SC Farense as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Summary

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Analysis from AVS x SC Farense for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 30 of September

🏟️ AVS X SC Farense – Portugal Primeira Liga
📅 30 of September, 2024 – 16:15
🔵 AVS – Winning probability: 44.78% | Fair line: 2.23
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 34.55% | Fair line: 2.89
🔴 SC Farense – Winning probability: 20.67% | Fair line: 4.84
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 AVS
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between AVS and SC Farense.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1191189 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for AVS x SC Farense

Is betting on AVS worth it?

🔵 AVS: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 44.78%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.92. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 450 times – having a profit of $414.00;
  • And would have lost other 550 times – with a loss of -$550.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$136.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 34.55%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.56. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 350 times – profiting $896.00;
  • And would lose other 650 times – having a loss of -$650.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$246.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on SC Farense?

🔴 SC Farense: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 20.67%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.77. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 210 times – this would give you a profit of $581.70
  • And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$208.30.

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Handicaps analysis for the match AVS x SC Farense

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 AVS
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AVS x SC Farense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 AVS, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 AVS.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 SC Farense.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AVS x SC Farense

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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