Nacional x Benfica Betting tips for October 6 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Nacional x Benfica, Sunday, 6/10/2024

📅 6/10/2024 14:00

Nacional 9.50

X 6.00

Benfica 1.24

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Nacional x Benfica:

🔮 Benfica wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Benfica, you can win up to $620.00!

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Important information for your tip for Nacional x Benfica: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Nacional in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-5.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Benfica in each of its last 4 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-87.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Benfica scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Nacional x Benfica, with Nacional as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 Playing as the home team, Nacional conceded at least 2 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Benfica. 👉 In the last 3 road matches, Benfica has not lost any of them. 👉 Even as a visitor, Benfica won the last 5 head-to-head matches Nacional´s territory

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Analysis from Nacional x Benfica for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 6 of October

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Nacional and Benfica.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1195226 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Nacional x Benfica

Is betting on Nacional worth it?

🔵 Nacional: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 0.9% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 9.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 10 times – having a profit of $85.00;
• And would have lost other 990 times – with a loss of -$990.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$905.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 3.49%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 6.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 30 times – having a profit of $150.00;
• And would lose other 970 times – having a loss of -$970.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$820.00.

Should you bet on Benfica?

🔴 Benfica: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 95.61%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.24. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 960 times – having a profit of $230.40;
• And would lose other 40 times – having a loss of -$40.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$190.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match Nacional x Benfica

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +2.0 Nacional
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Nacional x Benfica

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +2.0 Nacional and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +1.75 Nacional.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.75 Benfica.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Nacional x Benfica

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.25 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.