Fiorentina x AC Milan Betting tips for October 6 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Fiorentina x AC Milan, Sunday, 6/10/2024

📅 6/10/2024 15:45

Fiorentina 2.80

X 3.48

AC Milan 2.45

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Fiorentina x AC Milan:

🔮 Tied Match
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Some important points for the tip for Fiorentina x AC Milan: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Fiorentina in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-164.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Fiorentina scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against AC Milan, Fiorentina scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Fiorentina x AC Milan, with Fiorentina as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, AC Milan conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Fiorentina conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against AC Milan.

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Fiorentina x AC Milan?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2024, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Fiorentina x AC Milan:

Analysis from Fiorentina x AC Milan for the Italy Serie A – 6 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Fiorentina x AC Milan right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1195226 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Fiorentina x AC Milan

Is betting on Fiorentina worth it?

🔵 Fiorentina: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 26.25% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.80. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $468.00;
• And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$272.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.29% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.48. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 300 times – this would give you a profit of $744.00
• And would have lost other 700 times – with a loss of -$700.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$44.00.

Should you bet on AC Milan?

🔴 AC Milan: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 43.45% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.45. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 430 times – this would give you a profit of $623.50
• And would have lost other 570 times – with a loss of -$570.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$53.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Fiorentina x AC Milan

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Fiorentina
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Fiorentina x AC Milan

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Fiorentina and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Fiorentina.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 AC Milan.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Fiorentina x AC Milan

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.