Genoa x Fiorentina Betting tips for October 31 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Genoa x Fiorentina, Thursday, 31/10/2024

📅 31/10/2024 17:30

Genoa 3.30

X 3.49

Fiorentina 2.12

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Genoa x Fiorentina:

🔮 Fiorentina wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Fiorentina, you can win up to $1060.00!

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Important information for your tip for Genoa x Fiorentina: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Genoa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Fiorentina in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-100.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Fiorentina, Genoa scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Genoa conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Genoa conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Fiorentina. 👉 In the last 3 road matches, Fiorentina has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from Genoa x Fiorentina for the Italy Serie A – 31 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Genoa x Fiorentina right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1212930 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Genoa x Fiorentina

Should you bet on Genoa?

🔵 Genoa: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 15.9%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 160 times – profiting $368.00;
• And would lose other 840 times – losing -$840.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$472.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 19.46% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.49. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 190 times – profiting $473.10;
• And would lose other 810 times – losing -$810.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$336.90.

Should you bet on Fiorentina?

🔴 Fiorentina: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 64.64% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.12. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 650 times – this would give you a profit of $728.00
• And would have lost other 350 times – with a loss of -$350.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$378.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Genoa x Fiorentina

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Genoa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Genoa x Fiorentina

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Genoa, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Genoa. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Genoa x Fiorentina

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.