Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin Betting tips for November 1 in Colombia Cup

Our betting tip for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin, Friday, 1/11/2024

📅 1/11/2024 01:00

Atletico Nacional Medellin 2.15

X 3.20

Independiente Medellin 3.16

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin

Some important points for the tip for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Atletico Nacional Medellin in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-82.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Independiente Medellin in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $140.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Atletico Nacional Medellin scored at least 1.0 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Independiente Medellin, Atletico Nacional Medellin scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Atletico Nacional Medellin conceded at least 1.0 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Independiente Medellin conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Atletico Nacional Medellin conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Independiente Medellin.

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Analysis from Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin for the Colombia Cup – 1 of November

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Atletico Nacional Medellin and Independiente Medellin.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1213227 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin

Is betting on Atletico Nacional Medellin worth it?

🔵 Atletico Nacional Medellin: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 51.83%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.15. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 520 times – having a profit of $598.00;
• And would have lost other 480 times – with a loss of -$480.00 because of them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$118.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 23.26% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 230 times – this would give you a profit of $506.00
• And would lose other 770 times – having a loss of -$770.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$264.00.

Is betting on Independiente Medellin worth it?

🔴 Independiente Medellin: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 24.91% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.16. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $540.00
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$210.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Atletico Nacional Medellin
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Atletico Nacional Medellin and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Atletico Nacional Medellin.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Atletico Nacional Medellin.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.