Arouca x Braga Betting tips for November 3 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Arouca x Braga, Sunday, 3/11/2024

📅 3/11/2024 18:00

Arouca 4.00

X 3.76

Braga 1.80

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Arouca x Braga:

🔮 Braga wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Braga, you can win up to $900.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Arouca x Braga: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Arouca in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-305.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Braga in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-223.0. 👉 In the last 4 Braga matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Braga conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Arouca conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Braga. 👉 Even as a visitor, Braga won the last 3 head-to-head matches Arouca´s territory

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Analysis from Arouca x Braga for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 3 of November

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Arouca and Braga.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1214487 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Arouca x Braga

Should you bet on Arouca?

🔵 Arouca: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 8.66% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 90 times – having a profit of $270.00;
• And would lose other 910 times – having a loss of -$910.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$640.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 17.27% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.76. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 170 times – profiting $469.20;
• And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$360.80.

Is it a good idea to bet on Braga?

🔴 Braga: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 74.07%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.80. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 740 times – this would give you a profit of $592.00
• And would have lost other 260 times – with a loss of -$260.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$332.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Arouca x Braga

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 Arouca
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Arouca x Braga

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +1.0 Arouca and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.5 Arouca.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Braga.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Arouca x Braga

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.