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Home » Predictions » Portugal Primeira Liga » Famalicao x Arouca Betting tips for November 9 in Portugal Primeira Liga
Saturday, 09 November 2024, 18h00 Portugal Primeira Liga
Famalicao Famalicao
PREDICTION Famalicao wins Probability 59% 1 X 2
Arouca Arouca
ODD: @1.91 Don't miss this prediction!

Famalicao x Arouca Betting tips for November 9 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Famalicao x Arouca, Saturday, 9/11/2024
📅 9/11/2024
18:00
Famalicao Famalicao
1.91
X
3.40
Arouca Arouca
4.00

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Famalicao x Arouca:

🔮 Famalicao wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Famalicao, you can win up to $955.00!

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The main points for the tip for Famalicao x Arouca:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Famalicao in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $303.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Arouca in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-125.0.
👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Famalicao x Arouca, with Famalicao as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 Arouca matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.

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Summary

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Famalicao x Arouca?

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Analysis from Famalicao x Arouca for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 9 of November

🏟️ Famalicao X Arouca – Portugal Primeira Liga
📅 9 of November, 2024 – 18:00
🔵 Famalicao – Winning probability: 59.59% | Fair line: 1.68
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 22.45% | Fair line: 4.45
🔴 Arouca – Winning probability: 17.97% | Fair line: 5.57
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Famalicao
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.50 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Famalicao x Arouca right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1218440 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Famalicao x Arouca

Is it worth betting on Famalicao?

🔵 Famalicao: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 59.59% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.91. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 600 times – this would give you a profit of $546.00
  • And would have lost other 400 times – with a loss of -$400.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$146.00.

Should you bet on draw?

draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 22.45% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $528.00;
  • And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$252.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Arouca?

🔴 Arouca: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 17.97% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 180 times – profiting $540.00;
  • And would have lost other 820 times – with a loss of -$820.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$280.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Famalicao x Arouca

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Famalicao
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Famalicao x Arouca

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Famalicao and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Famalicao. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Famalicao x Arouca

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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