AC Milan x Genoa Betting tips for December 15 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for AC Milan x Genoa, Sunday, 15/12/2024

📅 15/12/2024 19:45

AC Milan 1.29

X 5.50

Genoa 9.00

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for AC Milan x Genoa:

🔮 AC Milan wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on AC Milan, you can win up to $645.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for AC Milan x Genoa: 👉 If you had bet $100 on AC Milan in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-107.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Genoa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $370.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, AC Milan scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Genoa, AC Milan scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 AC Milan matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 AC Milan is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home. 👉 AC Milan has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Genoa playing at home.

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Analysis from AC Milan x Genoa for the Italy Serie A – 15 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between AC Milan and Genoa.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1236762 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for AC Milan x Genoa

Should you bet on AC Milan?

🔵 AC Milan: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 90.09%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.29. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 900 times – profiting $261.00;
• And would lose other 100 times – having a loss of -$100.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$161.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 7.53% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 80 times – this would give you a profit of $360.00
• And would lose other 920 times – losing -$920.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$560.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Genoa?

🔴 Genoa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 2.38% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 9.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 20 times – having a profit of $160.00;
• And would lose other 980 times – having a loss of -$980.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$820.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match AC Milan x Genoa

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 AC Milan
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AC Milan x Genoa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.5 AC Milan, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.5 AC Milan.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AC Milan x Genoa

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.