Genoa x Napoli Betting tips for December 21 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Genoa x Napoli, Saturday, 21/12/2024

📅 21/12/2024 17:00

Genoa 5.25

X 3.75

Napoli 1.65

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Genoa x Napoli:

🔮 Napoli wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Napoli, you can win up to $825.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Genoa x Napoli: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Genoa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Napoli in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $135.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Napoli scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Napoli, Genoa scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Genoa x Napoli, with Genoa as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 Playing as the home team, Genoa conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Napoli.

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Genoa x Napoli?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Genoa x Napoli, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2024. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Genoa x Napoli for the Italy Serie A – 21 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Genoa x Napoli right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1238880 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Genoa x Napoli

Is it a good idea to bet on Genoa?

🔵 Genoa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 7.4% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 70 times – having a profit of $297.50;
• And would have lost other 930 times – with a loss of -$930.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$632.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.16% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.75. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 210 times – profiting $577.50;
• And would lose other 790 times – having a loss of -$790.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$212.50.

Should you bet on Napoli?

🔴 Napoli: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 71.44% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.65. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 710 times – this would give you a profit of $461.50
• And would lose other 290 times – having a loss of -$290.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$171.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Genoa x Napoli

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.25 Genoa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Genoa x Napoli

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +1.25 Genoa, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Genoa.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Napoli.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Genoa x Napoli

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.