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Home » Predictions » Portugal Primeira Liga » SC Farense x Guimaraes Betting tips for December 29 in Portugal Primeira Liga
Sunday, 29 December 2024, 15h30 Portugal Primeira Liga
SC Farense SC Farense
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 35% 1 X 2
Guimaraes Guimaraes
ODD: @3.5 Don't miss this prediction!

SC Farense x Guimaraes Betting tips for December 29 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for SC Farense x Guimaraes, Sunday, 29/12/2024
📅 29/12/2024
15:30
SC Farense SC Farense
4.33
X
3.50
Guimaraes Guimaraes
1.81

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for SC Farense x Guimaraes:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1750.00!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com
 

The main points for the tip for SC Farense x Guimaraes:

👉 If you had bet $100 on SC Farense in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-55.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Guimaraes in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-290.0.
👉 In the last 9 matches as the away team, Guimaraes conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Summary

Looking for another bookie to bet on SC Farense x Guimaraes?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on SC Farense x Guimaraes, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2024. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from SC Farense x Guimaraes for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 29 of December

🏟️ SC Farense X Guimaraes – Portugal Primeira Liga
📅 29 of December, 2024 – 15:30
🔵 SC Farense – Winning probability: 11.09% | Fair line: 9.02
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 35.57% | Fair line: 2.81
🔴 Guimaraes – Winning probability: 53.34% | Fair line: 1.87
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 SC Farense
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks

When the best bet on SC Farense x Guimaraes is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1240337 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for SC Farense x Guimaraes

Is betting on SC Farense worth it?

🔵 SC Farense: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 11.09% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.33. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 110 times – having a profit of $366.30;
  • And would lose other 890 times – losing -$890.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$523.70.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 35.57% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 360 times – this would give you a profit of $900.00
  • And would have lost other 640 times – with a loss of -$640.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$260.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Guimaraes?

🔴 Guimaraes: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 53.34%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.81. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 530 times – having a profit of $429.30;
  • And would lose other 470 times – having a loss of -$470.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$40.70.

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Handicaps analysis for the match SC Farense x Guimaraes

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 SC Farense
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for SC Farense x Guimaraes

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 SC Farense, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 SC Farense.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Guimaraes.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for SC Farense x Guimaraes

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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