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Home » Predictions » Portugal Primeira Liga » Braga x Casa Pia Betting tips for December 29 in Portugal Primeira Liga
Sunday, 29 December 2024, 18h00 Portugal Primeira Liga
Braga Braga
PREDICTION Braga wins Probability 82% 1 X 2
Casa Pia Casa Pia
ODD: @1.41 Don't miss this prediction!

Braga x Casa Pia Betting tips for December 29 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Braga x Casa Pia, Sunday, 29/12/2024
📅 29/12/2024
18:00
Braga Braga
1.41
X
4.56
Casa Pia Casa Pia
7.00

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Braga x Casa Pia:

🔮 Braga wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Braga, you can win up to $705.00!

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The main points for the tip for Braga x Casa Pia:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Braga in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-105.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Casa Pia in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-98.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Braga scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 Braga matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Playing as the home team, Braga conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Casa Pia.

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Summary

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Analysis from Braga x Casa Pia for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 29 of December

🏟️ Braga X Casa Pia – Portugal Primeira Liga
📅 29 of December, 2024 – 18:00
🔵 Braga – Winning probability: 82.68% | Fair line: 1.21
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 11.49% | Fair line: 8.71
🔴 Casa Pia – Winning probability: 5.83% | Fair line: 17.14
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 Braga
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks

When the best bet on Braga x Casa Pia is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1240337 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Braga x Casa Pia

Should you bet on Braga?

🔵 Braga: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 82.68%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.41. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 830 times – this would give you a profit of $340.30
  • And would lose other 170 times – losing -$170.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$170.30.

Is it worth betting on draw?

draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 11.49% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.56. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 110 times – having a profit of $391.60;
  • And would have lost other 890 times – with a loss of -$890.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$498.40.

Should you bet on Casa Pia?

🔴 Casa Pia: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 5.83% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 7.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 60 times – having a profit of $360.00;
  • And would have lost other 940 times – with a loss of -$940.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$580.00.

Place your Bet with Bet365 Bonus

Handicaps analysis for the match Braga x Casa Pia

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 Braga
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Braga x Casa Pia

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.25 Braga and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.25 Braga.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Braga x Casa Pia

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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