Atalanta x Cagliari Betting tips for December 13 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Atalanta x Cagliari, Saturday, 13/12/2025

📅 13/12/2025 19:45

Atalanta 1.35

X 5.00

Cagliari 8.50

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Atalanta x Cagliari:

🔮 Cagliari wins the match
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Some important points for the tip for Atalanta x Cagliari:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Atalanta in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $152.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Cagliari in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Atalanta scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 Atalanta is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home.

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Atalanta vs Cagliari:

Lets analyze the match between Atalanta and Cagliari at Gewiss Stadium, home of Atalanta, which has shown solid performance in recent games. Atalanta scored 9 goals in their last 5 home matches, conceding only 5, with an average of 2 goals per game and dominant ball possession (57%). Cagliari struggles away from home, with 0 wins in their last 5 away games and an average of just 1 goal scored per game. The median odds indicate clear favoritism for Atalanta (1.35), with a draw (5) and Cagliari win (8.5) as less likely options.

After normalizing the implied probabilities of the median odds, we estimate approximate fair probabilities: about 70% for Atalanta to win, around 19% for a draw, and about 11% for Cagliari to win. Considering recent team performances — especially Atalantas offensive strength at home against Cagliaris defensive fragility away — these probabilities make sense.

The calculated fair odds reflect this analysis: betting on Atalantas victory offers a significant positive expected value due to their technical and tactical superiority demonstrated in recent statistics.

📰 News: Atalanta is dealing with some squad doubts due to key injuries like Lookman and Bellanova, but maintains a strong offensive trio formed by De Ketelaere, Scamacca, and Lookman when available. The team recently defeated Chelsea in the Champions League playing in the same stadium — boosting their morale for this match. Cagliari faces important absences in midfield and defense and is under pressure in the fight against relegation; this could negatively impact their performance.

📈 Positional Analysis: Atalantas mid-table position allows them to play more freely, aiming to secure a spot in European playoffs, while Cagliari is pressured to escape the lower zone — but their recent history shows limited offensive capacity away from home to seriously threaten the hosts at this moment.

Bets Kenya Model Evaluation: The model suggests high value in betting on the visitors win (Cagliari), but this does not align with current statistics or news; it seems to overestimate the visiting teams chances here. I agree that betting on a draw or an upset is risky given the data presented.
My recommendation is to bet on Atalantas victory, as it offers a positive expected value above +10%, aligned with the technical/tactical dominance shown in recent matches.
Bet safely! ⚽🔥

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Analysis from Atalanta x Cagliari for the Italy Serie A – 13 of December

When the best bet on Atalanta x Cagliari is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1452259 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Latest news on the match between Atalanta and Cagliari

Atalanta: Atalanta is dealing with injury news and squad choices as the season reaches its climax: forward Ademola Lookman was training in isolation in Zingonia and remains doubtful for the upcoming Serie A match against Lecce, while defender Bellanova suffered a muscle injury after just 17 minutes in the Champions League group stage match against Chelsea, which Atalanta won 2-1 thanks to goals from João Pedro, Gianluca Scamacca, and De Ketelaere. Raffaele Palladino confirmed his offensive trio of De Ketelaere, Scamacca, and Lookman for the November 30 game against Fiorentina in Serie A, and the team is in 10th place with ten points from three remaining games, still fighting for a playoff spot. The probable lineup for the December 13 match shows a 3-4-2-1 formation with Kossounou, Hien, and Djimsiti in defense, Ederson and De Roon in midfield, and the offensive trio of Lookman, Scamacca, and De Ketelaere, while the club resists transfer rumors involving Lookman and Galatasaray, continuing to protect its core under the ownership of the Percassi family.

Cagliari: Cagliari is ready to face Atalanta on Saturday, December 13, at 8:45 PM, with coach Massimo Palladino lining up a 3-4-2-1 scheme; the squad is still missing several key players, as midfielder Gigot is expected to return only after the 18th round, while defender Rovella and winger Isaksen will be available approximately in the 20th and 18th rounds, respectively. The team is also dealing with repercussions from a recent controversy where midfielder Folorunsho was criticized for making an insulting comment to opponent Hermoso after Cagliaris victory over Roma — a game in which Sardinian team won, leading Roma coach Gasperini to admit that his team made “gross level errors” and to warn that the Sardinian team is fighting hard for survival in Serie A. Despite the incident, club officials have not yet taken disciplinary action against Folorunsho, while the player himself said he felt high adrenaline playing against his favorite team, Lazio, even as the team continues to seek upward movement in the Serie A table.

Table analysis for the match between Atalanta x Cagliari

Atalanta: Atalanta is currently in 12th place with 16 points, in an intermediate zone of the table. With a still considerable points gap to the top positions that qualify for European competitions, the team is no longer fighting for those high spots. On the other hand, the relegation margin is also comfortable, so the match against Cagliari is more about avoiding a drop in the standings than a direct fight for a spot or relegation. The game is important to maintain stability in the table and stay away from the danger zone, but not decisive for major season objectives.

Cagliari: Cagliari appears just below Atalanta, in 13th place with 14 points, only two points behind. Like the opponent, Cagliari is in a relatively safe position in the championship, outside the immediate relegation risk and far from European spots. The head-to-head match has significant weight for the team to try to surpass Atalanta in the table and climb positions, ensuring greater tranquility for the final rounds. Although it’s not a crucial game for qualification or extreme escape from relegation, it is important to consolidate Serie A permanence.

Summary: The match between Atalanta and Cagliari is important for both teams in the fight to stay in a comfortable position in the table, avoiding risks of relegation and seeking some upward movement. However, it is not a decisive game for international competition qualification or relegation. Therefore, the game has medium importance for both sides. ⚽

Tips for the 1×2 market for Atalanta x Cagliari

Is it a good idea to bet on Atalanta?

🔵 Atalanta: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 71.99%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.35. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 720 times – this would give you a profit of $252.00
• And would lose other 280 times – losing -$280.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$28.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 11.02% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 110 times – profiting $440.00;
• And would have lost other 890 times – with a loss of -$890.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$450.00.

Should you bet on Cagliari?

🔴 Cagliari: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 16.98% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 8.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 170 times – having a profit of $1275.00;
• And would lose other 830 times – having a loss of -$830.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$445.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atalanta x Cagliari

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 Atalanta
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atalanta x Cagliari

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.25 Atalanta and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.25 Atalanta.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atalanta x Cagliari

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.