Rio Ave x Guimaraes Betting tips for December 13 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Rio Ave x Guimaraes, Saturday, 13/12/2025

📅 13/12/2025 18:00

Rio Ave 2.63

X 3.28

Guimaraes 2.70

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Rio Ave x Guimaraes:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Rio Ave x Guimaraes

Important information for your tip for Rio Ave x Guimaraes:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Rio Ave in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-250.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Guimaraes in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $821.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Guimaraes, Rio Ave scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Rio Ave conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Guimaraes.
👉 Rio Ave has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Guimaraes playing at home.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Rio Ave vs Guimaraes?

Lets analyze the match between Rio Ave and Guimarães at Estádio dos Arcos, home of Rio Ave. 🏟️

📊 Recent statistics show that Rio Ave has a modest home performance, averaging 1 goal scored and 2 goals conceded per game, and suffers more shots (17) than they take (7). Guimarães, on the other hand, shows offensive and defensive balance away from home, scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 1 goal per match, with a higher volume of shots (13 for and 16 against). This indicates a more defensively consistent visiting team.

📈 In the Primeira Liga table, Rio Ave is mid-table with 16 points after 13 matches, while Vitória SC (Guimarães) is slightly better positioned in eighth place with 18 points. This proximity suggests a balanced contest where both teams aim to earn important points to improve their standings.

📰 News indicates Rio Ave recently beat AVS Futebol SAD and may have a key reinforcement with Ole Pohlmann in the squad. Conversely, Guimarães suffered a recent loss to Estrela Amadora but maintains a relatively solid campaign under coach Luis Pinto.

Analyzing the median odds: Rio Ave to win at 2.61 (implied probability ~38%), draw at 3.25 (~31%), and Guimarães to win at 2.7 (~37%). Normalized, these probabilities are approximately: Home Win:35%, Draw:29%, Away Win:36%.

Adjusting for statistical analysis — considering Rio Aves vulnerable home defense versus Guimarãess balanced attack — I would estimate fair probabilities close to these normalized values but giving a slight edge to the visitor due to their defensive consistency away:

• Rio Ave Win: ~33%
• Draw: ~28%
• Guimarães Win: ~39%

Thus, fair odds would be approximately:
Home = ~3.03
Draw = ~3.57
Away = ~2.56

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers — Home (2.75), Draw (3.20), Away (2.55) — we see positive expected value only in the bet on the visitor according to our calculation (EV ≈ +6% for Away Win). The Bets Kenya model also indicates positive value for the away victory (+13% EV), reinforcing this reading.

Bet suggestion:

• Betting on Vitória SC/Guimarães to win appears to be the best option here due to the positive expected value both by the model and recent statistical analysis and current team context.

Final analysis:

Considering the technical data combined with recent club news, it’s clear that despite the local crowd strength at Estádio dos Arcos, tactical balance favors the visiting team slightly in this tight matchup ⚽️🔥.

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📰 Relevant news:

• Rio Ave: German midfielder Ole Pohlmann listed in the squad; recently defeated AVS Futebol SAD;
• Guimarães: Coach Luis Pinto maintains a competitive team; last match was a loss against Estrela Amadora;
• The scenario shows teams close in the table seeking recovery or maintenance;

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📈 Table positioning analysis:

• Similar morale among teams;
• Direct fight for important points to climb or consolidate position;
• Table suggests an open but technically balanced game;

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Rio Ave x Guimaraes?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2025, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Rio Ave x Guimaraes:

Analysis from Rio Ave x Guimaraes for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 13 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Rio Ave x Guimaraes right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1452291 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news on the match between Rio Ave and Guimaraes

Rio Ave: Rio Ave is currently halfway up the Primeira Liga table after 13 matches, with three wins, seven draws, and three losses, totaling 16 points; they recently beat AVS – Futebol SAD 2-1 in a Liga Portugal Betclic match and are scheduled to face Vitória SC on December 13, 2025. The club has also been linked to the arrival of German midfielder Ole Pohlmann, who is listed in their squad for the 2025-26 season.

Vitória SC: Vitória Sport Clube (Vitória de Guimarães) competes in Liga Portugal Betclic, playing their home games at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, which has a capacity of 30,029 in Guimarães, under coach Luis Pinto; after 13 league matches, they are in eighth place with five wins, three draws, and five losses, accumulating 18 points and a goal difference of -3. Their most recent result was a 0-2 defeat to CF Estrela Amadora on September 14, 2025 (goals by Alioune Ndoye at 90 and Nélson Oliveira at 33), and their next match is scheduled for December 8, 2025, at 20:30 UTC against Gil Vicente.

Portugal Primeira Liga table analysis for Rio Ave x Guimaraes

Rio Ave: Rio Ave is in 10th place with 16 points, just 2 points behind Guimarães, which is in 8th place with 18 points. This match is crucial for Rio Ave, which has the chance to surpass a direct competitor on the table and move away from the mid-table zone, potentially improving its position in the league. With few rounds remaining, every point counts a lot for those fighting in the middle of the table, making this game very important for Rio Aves ambitions.

Guimarães: Guimarães holds 8th place with 18 points, in a tight battle to stay in a more comfortable position on the table, away from the lower spots. A victory would increase the gap to Rio Ave and secure a safer position, possibly aiming to reach a European competition qualification zone, as they are relatively close to the top half teams. Therefore, this match is also very important for Guimarães to maintain or improve their standing.

Summary: This matchup is important for both teams, which are close on the table and fight for intermediate positions that can bring security and good prospects for the rest of the season. It is a decisive duel for the ambitions of Rio Ave and Guimarães at this point of the championship. ⚽🔥

Tips for the 1×2 market for Rio Ave x Guimaraes

Is it worth betting on Rio Ave?

🔵 Rio Ave: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 38.48% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.63. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 380 times – profiting $619.40;
• And would have lost other 620 times – with a loss of -$620.00 because of them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$0.60, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.53%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.28. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 270 times – this would give you a profit of $615.60
• And would have lost other 730 times – with a loss of -$730.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$114.40.

Should you bet on Guimaraes?

🔴 Guimaraes: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 34.98%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.70. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 350 times – profiting $595.00;
• And would lose other 650 times – losing -$650.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$55.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Rio Ave x Guimaraes

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Rio Ave
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Rio Ave x Guimaraes

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.5 Rio Ave, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Rio Ave.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 Guimaraes.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Rio Ave x Guimaraes

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.