Cagliari x Pisa Betting tips for December 21 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Cagliari x Pisa, Sunday, 21/12/2025

📅 21/12/2025 11:30

Cagliari 2.18

X 3.20

Pisa 3.39

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Cagliari x Pisa:

🔮 Pisa wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Pisa, you can win up to $1695.00!

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The main points for the tip for Cagliari x Pisa:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Cagliari in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $75.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Pisa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Cagliari scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Pisa conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Cagliari vs Pisa:

Lets analyze the match between Cagliari and Pisa that will take place at the Unipol Domus stadium, home of Cagliari. The stadium is the usual venue for the Sardinian team, so we can consider the home advantage for them.

📊 Recent statistics show that Cagliari has a weak performance at home, with only 1 win in the last 5 home games and suffering an average of 1.8 goals per game (9 goals in 5 games). They also have less possession (45%) and concede more shots (12 per game) than they create (9 per game). Pisa, even playing away, has a poor record in the same league with only 1 win in the last 5 away games and concedes many goals (average of 2.2 goals conceded per game).

⚽ Calculating fair odds based on median odds adjusted for the house margin: approximately 44% for Cagliari win, 30% for draw, and 26% for Pisa win. This reflects a slight home advantage despite defensive issues.

📈 In the table, Cagliari is in the lower half of Serie A fighting against relegation, needing points at home to move away from this threat. Pisa is in an intermediate position in Serie B seeking stability but facing offensive difficulties. This greater need for Cagliari could boost their performance in this match.

📰 News indicates Cagliari has been trying to strengthen their defense after a recent narrow defeat against Atalanta; Pisa is trying to improve their attack with possible signings but still not converting chances consistently. This reinforces the idea of a game where the home team will try to control the game despite defensive fragilities.

Analyzing the final odds offered by bookmakers: Cagliari victory pays around 2.10, close to our fair estimate; draw is around 3.20; away victory pays up to 3.60 — a high value considering Pisas poor away stats.

The analysis suggests a positive value in betting on the home team’s win (Cagliari), as they are highly motivated playing at Unipol Domus and need points urgently to escape the bottom of the table; additionally, their chances are underestimated by the market compared to our fair forecast.

Suggestion: Bet on Cagliari to win, as it has a positive expected value compared to other markets.

Analysis on Bets Kenya model:
The model indicates higher expected value in betting on the visiting team (~24%), but this contradicts recent statistical data and the current context of the teams — especially because Pisa plays away in a higher league than theirs currently (Cagliari is in Serie A while Pisa is in Serie B). Therefore, I disagree with this suggestion.
My recommendation is to bet on the victory of Cagliari, with an estimated EV above +10%, taking advantage of their urgent need for points playing at their usual stadium.

Always remember: sports betting involves risks! Use this analysis as support for your final decision 😉⚽️

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Analysis from Cagliari x Pisa for the Italy Serie A – 21 of December

When the best bet on Cagliari x Pisa is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1455219 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news on Cagliari x Pisa

Cagliari: Cagliaris most recent match in Serie A was a narrow 2-1 defeat to Atalanta, where the Sardinian team managed to equalize at 75 minutes before conceding the winning goal at the end of the match; the loss leaves Cagliari firmly in the lower half of the table as they prepare for the next round, with the club focused on strengthening their defense and earning points in upcoming matches to stay away from relegation zone.

Pisa SC: Pisa SC is competing in Serie B and holds an intermediate position in the standings, around fifth place after 22 rounds, having reinforced their defense under coach Davide Ballardini, but still facing difficulties in converting chances consistently; the club had a brief appearance in the Coppa Italia in December, losing 2-1 to Serie A team Inter Milan in the round of 16, despite the valiant performance of forward Francesco Caputo, who has been the subject of speculation for a permanent transfer after his loan, while Pisa is also linked to a potential winter signing of young forward Luca Vido from Atalanta to strengthen their attack in the decisive phase of the season.

Table analysis for the match between Cagliari and Pisa

Cagliari: Currently in 15th place with 14 points, Cagliari is in an intense fight to avoid relegation, as they are only two points ahead of Pisa, their direct opponent in this match, which is in the relegation zone. With few rounds remaining in Serie A, every point is crucial to move away from the drop zone. Therefore, for Cagliari, this game is super important to stay out of the relegation zone and secure their place in the top division.

Pisa: Pisa is in 19th place with 10 points, in the relegation zone. They are just four points behind the 15th place (Cagliari), showing that the team still has a real chance to escape relegation, especially with matches against direct rivals like Cagliari. This match is crucial to try to catch up with the opponent and dream of recovery. Pisa cannot waste the chance to earn points and try to escape Serie B.

Summary: This is a decisive confrontation for both teams, fighting against relegation and needing the points to stay in Serie A. Without a doubt, a life-or-death game for Cagliari and Pisa! ⚽🔥

Tips for the 1×2 market for Cagliari x Pisa

Should you bet on Cagliari?

🔵 Cagliari: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 38.69% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.18. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 390 times – having a profit of $460.20;
• And would lose other 610 times – having a loss of -$610.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$149.80.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 29.87%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 300 times – profiting $660.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$40.00.

Is it worth betting on Pisa?

🔴 Pisa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.45% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.39. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 310 times – profiting $740.90;
• And would lose other 690 times – having a loss of -$690.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$50.90.

Handicaps analysis for the match Cagliari x Pisa

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Cagliari
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cagliari x Pisa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Cagliari and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Cagliari.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Pisa.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cagliari x Pisa

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.