Genoa x Atalanta Betting tips for December 21 in Italy Serie A
| 📅 21/12/2025 19:45 |
 Genoa3.90 |
X 3.40 |
Atalanta  1.93 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Genoa x Atalanta:
🔮 Atalanta wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Atalanta, you can win up to $965.00!
Some important points for the tip for Genoa x Atalanta:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Genoa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-295.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Atalanta in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $30.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Genoa scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Atalanta scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Genoa matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 Atalanta matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Genoa conceded at least 1 goal(s).
🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for Genoa vs Atalanta:
Lets analyze the match between Genoa and Atalanta at Luigi Ferraris Stadium, which is Genoas usual stadium, giving them the home advantage. 🏟️
📈 Looking at recent statistics, Genoa has a modest home performance with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 home games, averaging 1 goal per game and conceding about 1 goal as well. Away from home, Atalanta shows slightly more offensive strength with a similar goal average (1) but concedes slightly more goals (around 1.4). Ball possession favors Atalanta slightly (56% vs. 52% for Genoa), indicating greater control when visiting.
The median odds clearly favor Atalanta (odds ~1.93), while Genoa appears as an underdog with high odds (~3.9) and a mid-range draw (~3.4). Converting these odds into implied probabilities gives approximately: Genoa win ~22%, draw ~29%, Atalanta win ~49%. This makes sense given the recent history of the teams.
Considering recent news: Genoa is seeking experienced reinforcements to improve their squad fighting in the table; meanwhile, Atalanta faces some key injuries but has players in good form like Scamacca and Palladino, along with the experienced leadership of De Roon in midfield.
The analysis of fair odds adjusted for the context suggests that although Atalanta is favored due to superior technical quality and better offensive form, the value in bets might be on the visiting team’s victory because the final odds offered are slightly higher than our fair estimate based on combined statistics and news.
We calculated the expected values of bets considering the final odds:
- Genoa Win: EV negative (-11%), not recommended;
- Draw: EV negative (-23%), not recommended;
- Atalanta Win: EV positive (+7.8%), clear value bet!
Betting on Atalanta to win is our main suggestion here! 💰⚽
📰 Recent news heavily influenced this analysis: Genoas active interest in reinforcements shows a team trying to rebuild but still vulnerable; despite injuries in Atalantas defense, their attackers are in very good form, ensuring consistent offensive potential to seek the three points away.
Overall, I fully agree with the Bets Kenya club model indicating positive value only for the away victory — that’s where our best expected return lies! Let’s go ahead and bet on the visitors good offensive moment against a home team pressured for results!
Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Genoa x Atalanta?
If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Genoa x Atalanta, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:
Analysis from Genoa x Atalanta for the Italy Serie A – 21 of December
🏟️ Genoa X Atalanta – Italy Serie A
📅 21 of December, 2025 – 19:45
🔵 Genoa – Winning probability: 18.35% | Fair line: 5.45
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 18.47% | Fair line: 5.41
🔴 Atalanta – Winning probability: 63.18% | Fair line: 1.58
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Genoa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks
When the best bet on Genoa x Atalanta is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1455219 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Latest news about Genoa x Atalanta
Genoa: Genoa recently hosted Inter in a Serie A match at Luigi Ferraris, losing 2-1 after goals from Lautaro Martínez and Vitinha for Inter, while Genoas attacking defender Brooke Norton-Cuffy opened the scoring; the young player born in England has attracted great interest from top clubs, with Inter allegedly monitoring him as a potential summer signing. In the transfer market, the club is actively seeking experienced forwards, with ongoing negotiations for former Roma striker Andrea Perin and ex-Roma and Galatasaray player Edin Džeko, as well as evaluating former Udinese defender Rodrigo Becao as a defensive reinforcement to strengthen a squad struggling to improve its league position.
Atalanta: Atalanta accelerated the rehabilitation of injured defenders Hien and Giorgio Scalvini with an early training session, while striker Gianluca Scamacca is in very good form, scoring regularly and benefiting from his partnership with new forward Raffaele Palladino; veteran midfielder Marten de Roon remains indispensable, having extended his appearance record for the club and still wearing the captains armband, as the team seeks a spot in the Champions League playoffs and a deep run in the Coppa Italia under Gian Piero Gasperini, despite a series of injuries that keep Berat Djimsiti out with a thigh muscle problem until early January and other players like Ryan Bakker (recovering from anterior cruciate ligament surgery), Alvaro Sulemana, and Davide Bellanova sidelined for various periods.
Table analysis for the game between Genoa and Atalanta
Genoa: Genoa is in 16th place with 14 points, close to the relegation zone. Considering the advanced stage of the league and the small points difference to teams just above the relegation area, this match is very important for Genoa to try to escape relegation. Every point counts to distance themselves from the danger zone and maintain chances of staying in Serie A.
Atalanta: Atalanta is in 12th position with 19 points, in an intermediate position with a comfortable gap both from the relegation zone and European competition spots. Therefore, this game is less important for Atalanta in terms of classification, as the team seems relatively safe and out of the direct fight for international spots at this moment.
Summary: The match is mainly decisive for Genoa, which fights to avoid relegation, while for Atalanta, its importance is less, as the team is more relaxed in the table.
Tips for the 1×2 market for Genoa x Atalanta
Is it worth betting on Genoa?
🔵 Genoa: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 18.35%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.90. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 180 times – this would give you a profit of $522.00
- And would have lost other 820 times – with a loss of -$820.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$298.00.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 18.47%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 180 times – this would give you a profit of $432.00
- And would have lost other 820 times – with a loss of -$820.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$388.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Atalanta?
🔴 Atalanta: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 63.18% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.93. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 630 times – having a profit of $585.90;
- And would lose other 370 times – having a loss of -$370.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$215.90.
Handicaps analysis for the match Genoa x Atalanta
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Genoa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Genoa x Atalanta
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Genoa, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Genoa.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.5 Genoa.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Genoa x Atalanta
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
