Tondela x Casa Pia Betting tips for December 21 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Tondela x Casa Pia, Sunday, 21/12/2025

📅 21/12/2025 18:00

Tondela 2.30

X 3.10

Casa Pia 3.20

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Tondela x Casa Pia:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Tondela x Casa Pia

The main points for the tip for Tondela x Casa Pia:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Tondela in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 Tondela did not score any goals in the last 5 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 3 Tondela matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.

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Analysis from Tondela x Casa Pia for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 21 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Tondela x Casa Pia right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1454884 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news on the match between Tondela and Casa Pia

Tondela: Tondela is currently struggling near the bottom of the Primeira Liga table, occupying positions 16th to 17th, with their recent form including a 2-0 loss to FC Porto; they face a tough sequence of matches with a home game against FC Arouca on January 3, 2026, a match against FC Alverca on February 15, 2026, and an away trip to Estoril Praia on February 8, 2026. Meanwhile, their under-19 team, which lost 2-0 to Sporting U-19 in the U-19 Championship, is scheduled to play against União Torreense U-19 on December 21, 2025. Despite the main team’s difficulties, the club started the season as the reigning Liga Portugal 2 champions.

Casa Pia: Casa Pia is currently facing difficulties in the Primeira Liga, holding the 15th position after 14 matches, with a record of two wins, four draws, and eight losses, a goal difference of -14, and ten points. They are preparing for their next game against Gil Vicente on December 13, 2025, at 15:30 UTC in Rio Maior. The squad features experienced defender José Fonte, veteran full-back André Geraldes, and versatile defender Gaizka Larrazabal, while the goalkeeping department is led by 39-year-old Ricardo Batista. The team aims to improve their performance and escape relegation zone in the coming weeks.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Tondela x Casa Pia

Is it a good idea to bet on Tondela?

🔵 Tondela: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 43.93% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 440 times – this would give you a profit of $572.00
• And would lose other 560 times – having a loss of -$560.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$12.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 26.01% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $546.00;
• And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$194.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Casa Pia?

🔴 Casa Pia: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.06%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 300 times – this would give you a profit of $660.00
• And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$40.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Handicaps analysis for the match Tondela x Casa Pia

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Tondela
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Tondela x Casa Pia

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Tondela, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Tondela.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Casa Pia.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Tondela x Casa Pia

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.