Cremonese x Napoli Betting tips for December 28 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Cremonese x Napoli, Sunday, 28/12/2025

📅 28/12/2025 14:00

Cremonese 5.61

X 3.80

Napoli 1.60

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Cremonese x Napoli:

🔮 Napoli wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Napoli, you can win up to $800.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Cremonese x Napoli:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Cremonese in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-265.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Napoli in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-45.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Cremonese scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 Napoli matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Cremonese vs Napoli?

Lets analyze the match between Cremonese and Napoli at Stadio Giovanni Zini, the legitimate home of Cremonese, which has a capacity of about 15,200 fans. The home team has shown modest performance in their recent home games: averaging 1.2 goals per game (6 goals in 5 matches), but conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game (7 goals conceded). Meanwhile, Napoli has a more efficient attack in their last five league matches, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and only 0.6 goals conceded away from home.

The implied probabilities of the median odds are:

• Cremonese win: 1/5.61 = ~0.178
• Draw: 1/3.8 = ~0.263
• Napoli win: 1/1.6 = ~0.625

The sum of these probabilities exceeds 1 due to bookmaker margins; normalizing to a total of 100%, we get approximately:

• Fair Cremonese victory: ~14%
• Fair draw: ~21%
• Fair Napoli victory: ~65%

Given Napolis tactical dominance and superior quality — evidenced by their recent Italian Super Cup victory and organization under Antonio Conte — as well as their comfortable position in the table (3rd place with a clear advantage over Cremonese, who are mid-table), the real chances of the visitor winning are high.

However, the final odds for the visitors win are quite low (around @1.55), indicating little value to bet on this option according to our EV calculation (-17%). On the other hand, the final draw odds (@3.9) might have some value considering Cremoneses recent defensive solidity (fewer shots on target conceded in the league) and their tight defensive scheme even with recent absences.

EV Analysis:

• Cremonese win EV negative (-49%) – not worth betting;
• Draw EV negative (-37%) – risky;
• Napoli win EV positive (+17%) – recommended bet by Bets Kenya model.

📈 Positional Analysis:
Napoli remains at the top of the table, aiming to maintain their positive streak after their recent title; Cremonese fights for stability in midfield without direct pressure for relegation or European qualification — this might lead to a more cautious stance from the home team.

📰 Relevant News:
Cremonese maintains a solid defensive scheme even after a recent red card; they lead the league in defensive discipline.
Napoli, energized by their recent Super Cup victory, is gradually adding reinforcements — this boosts confidence for the visiting team.

Based on all this, I fully agree with the Bets Kenya models suggestion to bet on Napolis victory 🟢 despite the low odds because there is a significant positive expected value (+17%). The visiting team has superior technical quality and high motivation while playing against a weaker offensive opponent at their own stadium.

Therefore, my recommendation is to follow this safe bet on Napolis win! ⚽🔥

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Analysis from Cremonese x Napoli for the Italy Serie A – 28 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Cremonese x Napoli right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1456398 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

The latest news about Cremonese x Napoli

Cremonese: Cremonese drew 0-0 with Lazio on December 20, 2025, at the Olimpico, keeping a clean sheet while playing in a 3-5-2 formation that started with Audero in goal, Terracciano, Baschirotto, and Folino in defense, Barbieri, Bondo, Grassi, Johnsen, and Pezzella in midfield, and the attacking duo Bonazzoli and Vardy; despite a red card for defender Ceccherini in this match, the team, led by Nicola, accumulated 21 points in 16 Serie A games, comfortably mid-table, leading the league in defensive discipline and recording the fewest shots on target (127). Nicola is expected to keep a similar lineup for the upcoming match against Napoli on December 28.

Napoli: Napoli started the festive period by winning the 2025-26 Italian Super Cup with a 2-0 victory over Bologna, with goals from Brazilian winger Neres and an impeccable defensive display that remained unchanged across two Super Cup matches; under Antonio Conte, the team has been praised for tactical organization and solidity. The winter transfer window is already moving with Lukakus return, which allows Lorenzo Lucca to potentially leave, Mainoos departure is confirmed, and Conte is seeking an additional option in midfield – a loan for Vergara is under consideration – while the team awaits the imminent return of Anguissa in the middle of the month, Gilmour will be available in four weeks, and Lobotka, McTominay, and Elmas continue to be regulars. All of this occurs amid recent criticisms from club president De Laurentiis directed at football executives during the Christmas period.

Italy Serie A table analysis for Cremonese x Napoli

Cremonese: Cremonese is in 11th place with 21 points, in a safe zone away from relegation threat, which starts at 18th place with 12 points. With a relatively comfortable margin to stay in Serie A, this match against Napoli is important to try to improve their position on the table, but not decisive in terms of fighting for European spots or risk of relegation. The team should use this game to consolidate a stable campaign and, who knows, aim for an increase in points.

Napoli: Napoli is in 3rd place, with 31 points, directly competing for a spot in the Champions League. The difference to 4th place is small (1 point) and to 2nd place is also 1 point, so this game is crucial to maintain or improve their position for the most important European competitions. As important rounds remain ahead, a victory here can give a great boost to secure the spot directly.

Summary: The game is important for both teams, but for different reasons: for Napoli, it is a decisive match to keep pressure in the fight for Champions League spots; for Cremonese, it is an opportunity to move up the table and consolidate their stay in Serie A. Therefore, a match with meaningful stakes for both! ⚽🔥

Tips for the 1×2 market for Cremonese x Napoli

Is betting on Cremonese worth it?

🔵 Cremonese: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 7.74% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.61. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 80 times – having a profit of $368.80;
• And would lose other 920 times – having a loss of -$920.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$551.20.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 16.26%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.80. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 160 times – this would give you a profit of $448.00
• And would lose other 840 times – having a loss of -$840.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$392.00.

Is betting on Napoli worth it?

🔴 Napoli: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 76.01%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 760 times – profiting $456.00;
• And would have lost other 240 times – with a loss of -$240.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$216.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Cremonese x Napoli

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.25 Cremonese
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cremonese x Napoli

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +1.25 Cremonese, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +1.0 Cremonese.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.0 Napoli.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cremonese x Napoli

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.