Bologna x Sassuolo Betting tips for December 28 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Bologna x Sassuolo, Sunday, 28/12/2025

📅 28/12/2025 17:00

Bologna 1.74

X 3.60

Sassuolo 4.78

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Bologna x Sassuolo:

🔮 Bologna wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Bologna, you can win up to $870.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Bologna x Sassuolo:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Bologna in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-222.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Sassuolo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $500.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Sassuolo, Bologna scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Bologna x Sassuolo, with Bologna as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Bologna conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Bologna vs Sassuolo:

Lets analyze the match between Bologna and Sassuolo at the Renato DallAra Stadium, which is Bolognas usual stadium, giving them the home advantage. According to recent statistics, Bologna has a stronger offensive performance at home with an average of 2 goals per game and higher ball possession (56%) compared to Sassuolo, which scores an average of 1 goal away and has only 44% possession. Additionally, Bologna shoots much more (21 shots per game versus 10 for Sassuolo) and creates more clear chances (7 accurate shots versus 4). This shows a clear dominance of Bologna when playing at their stadium.

The median odds indicate an implied probability of about 57% for the home team to win, around 28% for a draw, and about 21% for the away team to win. After normalizing these probabilities to adjust the bookmaker margins, we get approximate fair values: Bologna win around 54%, draw around 27%, and Sassuolo win around 19%. Considering the superior offensive stats, possession control, and tactical advantage highlighted in recent news — such as their good emotional phase after reaching the Italian Supercup final — my estimate reinforces this advantage for the home team.

The Bets Kenya model suggests very low predicted odds for the home win (~1.39), indicating high confidence in this bet with a positive expected value above +22%. The predicted odds for a draw (~5.86) and away win (~9.25) are too high, reflecting a low chance of these outcomes according to the model.

📰 News: Bologna is riding high after their recent campaign in the Italian Supercup, where they showed mental strength by winning on penalties against Inter; this boosts their morale despite some minor injuries in the squad. Sassuolo, on the other hand, suffers from important absences like Berardi injured, reducing their offensive power at a crucial point of the season.

📈 Table analysis: Bologna is better positioned in Serie A (6th place), aiming to stay firm in the fight for European competitions, while Sassuolo is just behind (9th place). This difference increases pressure on the visitors, who need to earn points away but face a motivated home team.

Suggested Bet: I fully agree with the bet on Bolognas victory indicated by the Bets Kenya model! Based on dominant statistics, motivating news for the home team, and important absences in the visiting team, I see real value in this bet which shows a positive EV above +20%. I would avoid bets on a draw or away victory as they do not present an interesting expected value here.

Lets bet on Bolognas solid favoritism, taking advantage of this great opportunity! ⚽🔥

Looking for another bookie to bet on Bologna x Sassuolo?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2025, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Bologna x Sassuolo:

Analysis from Bologna x Sassuolo for the Italy Serie A – 28 of December

When the best bet on Bologna x Sassuolo is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1456398 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Latest news on Bologna x Sassuolo

Bologna FC 1909: Bologna FC 1909 finished the 2025 season on a high note, advancing to the Italian Super Cup final after a dramatic semi-final victory against Inter in Riyadh, decided by a penalty shootout 4-3, with Ciro Immobile converting the decisive penalty; Jonathan Rowe also played a key role, scoring in the shootout and later commenting on his growing comfort with the Italian language and the teams tactical demands, while coach Vincenzo Italiano emphasized that the club must win finals to avoid ongoing frustrations and highlighted the teams rapid rise from Serie D to a major cup final in just seven years. The final against Napoli on December 22 at King Saud University Stadium had a reduced crowd, many empty seats, and large banners made by fans, along with a light and fireworks show before the match, but without a full house atmosphere. Looking ahead, Bolognas probable lineup for the Serie A match on December 28 follows Italianos 4-3-3 scheme, with key players fit and only minor injuries, positioning the team to stay strong in the cup while seeking a good league position.

Sassuolo: Sassuolo, managed by Roberto Grosso, reached the 16th round of Serie A after a win over Fiorentina reignited hopes of qualifying for European tournaments, but on December 21, 2025, they were defeated 1-0 at Mapei Stadium by Torino, when Nikola Vlasic scored a penalty after VAR review; Granata lined up in a 4-3-3 with Muric in goal, defense of Walukiewicz, Idzes, Muharemovic, and Doig, midfield with Vranckx, Matic, and Koné, and the attacking trio of Volpato, Cheddira (who replaced the injured Pinamonti), and Laurienté, while star striker Domenico Berardi is sidelined with a moderate muscular injury and is in rehabilitation. Sassuolos next match is scheduled for December 28, 2025, against Bologna at 6 pm, with Grosso likely to keep a similar lineup depending on player fitness updates.

Italy Serie A table analysis for Bologna x Sassuolo

Bologna: Bologna is in 6th place with 25 points, currently securing a spot in the Conference League. With a reasonable points gap to teams just above and below, the match against Sassuolo is important to maintain or even improve this position, aiming to secure qualification for European competitions and avoid slips that could cost positions in the table.

Sassuolo: Sassuolo is in 10th place with 21 points, a bit further from European spots but comfortably away from relegation zone. For them, the game is a good chance to earn important points if they want to dream of climbing the table, but without too much pressure, as the current situation is neither critical nor decisive.

Summary: The match is more important for Bologna, which fights to secure a European spot, while for Sassuolo it is a relevant game to seek better positions, but without extreme pressure. Therefore, the game has moderate importance for both teams, with greater weight for Bologna.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Bologna x Sassuolo

Is betting on Bologna worth it?

🔵 Bologna: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 76.84%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.74. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 770 times – profiting $569.80;
• And would lose other 230 times – losing -$230.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$339.80.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 15.42% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 150 times – having a profit of $390.00;
• And would lose other 850 times – having a loss of -$850.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$460.00.

Should you bet on Sassuolo?

🔴 Sassuolo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 7.74%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.78. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 80 times – this would give you a profit of $302.40
• And would lose other 920 times – having a loss of -$920.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$617.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Bologna x Sassuolo

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Bologna
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Bologna x Sassuolo

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Bologna, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Bologna.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Bologna x Sassuolo

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.