Atalanta x Inter Milan Betting tips for December 28 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Atalanta x Inter Milan, Sunday, 28/12/2025

📅 28/12/2025 19:45

Atalanta 3.17

X 3.48

Inter Milan 2.17

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Atalanta x Inter Milan:

🔮 Atalanta wins the match
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The main points for the tip for Atalanta x Inter Milan:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Atalanta in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $288.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Inter Milan in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-79.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Atalanta scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Inter Milan scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Atalanta matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Playing as the home team, Atalanta conceded at least 2 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Inter Milan.
👉 Atalanta is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 In the last 3 road matches, Inter Milan has not lost any of them.
👉 Even as a visitor, Inter Milan won the last 3 head-to-head matches Atalanta´s territory

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Atalanta vs Inter Milan:

Lets analyze the match between Atalanta and Inter Milan at Gewiss Stadium, home of Atalanta. Based on recent stats, Atalanta performs well at home with 4 wins and only 1 loss in their last 5 games at their stadium, averaging 2 goals per game and conceding only 1. Meanwhile, Inter Milan shows solid away numbers, with a similar average of 2 goals scored and 1 conceded, and has won 3 of their last 5 away games in the same league.

The implied probabilities of median odds are: Atalanta win ~31.55%, draw ~28.74%, Inter win ~45.66%. After normalization to adjust the house margin, we get approximately: Atalanta: 30%, Draw: 27%, Inter Milan: 43%.

The Bets Kenya model analysis indicates fair odds close to the final odds for the visitors win (~2), but underestimates the value of the draw and Atalantas win, which appear with higher odds in the market.

📰 News:
Atalanta is dealing with several key defensive injuries and absence of key players due to the African Nations Cup, which could weaken their backline against a strong attack like Inters. On the other hand, Inter also suffers from serious defensive absences until the end of the year but remains optimistic about future reinforcements.

📈 Positional Analysis:
In the updated table (data indicates Inter is well positioned while Atalanta is lower), this gives a psychological advantage to the visiting team seeking to maintain leadership or high position in Serie A; Atalanta needs to score points to get closer to the leaders or secure European qualification.

Given this, my assessment is that the real chances are balanced between a narrow Inter victory or a competitive game where Atalanta can surprise playing at their usual stadium — despite defensive absences. A draw shouldnt be completely ruled out given this fierce competition.

Calculating expected value considering final odds:
– Atalanta Win EV ≈ +7%
– Draw EV ≈ -10%
– Inter Win EV ≈ +3%

In other words, there is a higher positive value betting on Atalanta, even as an underdog today.

I partially agree with the Bets Kenya model indicating favoritism towards Inter Milan due to overall squad quality and recent history against this opponent; however, I disagree with the negative value assigned to the home win bet — I see a good value betting opportunity there! ⚽🔥

Final tip: Consider betting on the surprising victory of Atalanta, as current conditions show potential for this upset at Gewiss Stadium!

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Atalanta x Inter Milan?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2025, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Atalanta x Inter Milan:

Analysis from Atalanta x Inter Milan for the Italy Serie A – 28 of December

When the best bet on Atalanta x Inter Milan is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1456398 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news on Atalanta x Inter Milan

Atalanta: Atalanta has been performing well, winning 2-0 against Fiorentina on November 30 with goals from Ademola Lookman and Odilon Kossounou, and securing a 1-0 victory over Genoa on December 21 thanks to a goal from Hien; the squad for the match against Genoa also included returns from Kamaldeen Sulemana and Hien, while Mario Pasalic, who lost his father last week, returned to training on December 23 but remains unavailable due to personal reasons. The team continues to face a long injury list: Berat Djimsiti, Alessandro Bellanova, and Robin Bakker are still out, in addition to Lookman and Kossounou serving their national teams at the African Cup of Nations, with Bakker doing individual work, and the defensive line will also feel the absences of Bellanova and Djimsiti in upcoming matches.

Inter: Inters season started with difficulties, having been eliminated on penalties in the Super Cup held in Saudi Arabia, a defeat that exposed tactical weaknesses as well as a persistent sense of incompleteness, despite the club leading Serie A; the squad is further hampered by several injuries – Matteo Darmian and veteran defender Francesco Acerbi are out until 2026, while Cristian Chivu faces a knee problem and Luca Pasalic is just returning to fitness – which led coach Simone Inzaghi to prioritize defensive reinforcements, with the January transfer market already targeting young players like Norton-Cuffy, Valincic, and Bellanova, as well as evaluating the possible signing of Muharemovic; despite these challenges, the club remains optimistic that the 2026 season will be a breakthrough year for promising forward Pio Esposito, who is expected to play a central role for both Inter and the national team.

Table analysis for the match between Atalanta x Inter Milan

Atalanta: Atalanta is in 9th place with 22 points, far from the spots for international competitions (7 points behind 6th place) and also not threatened by immediate relegation, as they have a good points margin over the last positions. Therefore, the match against Inter Milan has moderate importance for Atalanta, which can use the game to improve its starting lineup, but will hardly reach the main European spots at this stage of the championship.

Inter Milan: Inter Milan is leading Serie A with 33 points, one point ahead of the second-placed team. This match against Atalanta is very important to maintain the top of the table and increase the lead over direct rivals, especially in the fight for the title. A victory in this match strengthens Inters campaign towards the Champions League and the title.

Summary: The game is very important for Inter Milan, which is fighting for the title, and has moderate importance for Atalanta, which is more focused on securing its position in the middle of the table without major chances of direct access to the Champions League.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Atalanta x Inter Milan

Should you bet on Atalanta?

🔵 Atalanta: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 28.12%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.17. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $607.60;
• And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$112.40.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 24.71% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.48. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $620.00;
• And would lose other 750 times – losing -$750.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$130.00.

Is it worth betting on Inter Milan?

🔴 Inter Milan: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 47.17% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.17. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 470 times – profiting $549.90;
• And would lose other 530 times – having a loss of -$530.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$19.90.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atalanta x Inter Milan

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Atalanta
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atalanta x Inter Milan

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Atalanta and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Atalanta.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Inter Milan.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atalanta x Inter Milan

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.