Atalanta x Roma Betting tips for January 3 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Atalanta x Roma, Saturday, 3/1/2026

📅 3/1/2026 19:45

Atalanta 2.16

X 3.25

Roma 3.28

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Atalanta x Roma:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Atalanta x Roma

The main points for the tip for Atalanta x Roma:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Atalanta in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $288.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $42.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Roma, Atalanta scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Atalanta x Roma, with Atalanta as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Atalanta conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Atalanta conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Roma.
👉 Atalanta has won all the last 3 matches playing at home against Roma.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Atalanta vs Roma:

Lets analyze the match between Atalanta and Roma at Gewiss Stadium, home of Atalanta, which has shown good recent performance at home with 4 wins and only 1 loss in the last 5 games. The average goals scored by Atalanta at home is high (2 goals per game), while they concede little (1 goal per game). Roma, the away team, also has a strong offensive average (2 goals per game) and a solid defense, conceding about 1 goal away from home.

The implicit probabilities of median odds are: Atalanta win ~46%, draw ~31%, Roma win ~30%. After normalization to sum to 100%, we get approximately: Atalanta win 43%, draw 29%, Roma win 28%. Considering recent team statistics — especially Atalantas strong offensive performance at Gewiss Stadium — my fair estimate for the probabilities would be around: Atalanta win about 45%, draw about 27%, Roma win about 28%.

Calculating fair odds based on these adjusted probabilities yields values close to:

• Atalanta Win: @2.22
• Draw: @3.70
• Roma Win: @3.57

Analyzing the expected value of bets using the final odds provided:

• Bet on Home Win (Atalanta): EV ≈ +0.8%
• Bet on Draw: EV ≈ -10.8%
• Bet on Away Win (Roma): EV ≈ -4.9%

Thus, only betting on the home team win shows a slight positive expected value, though small.

📰 Important news:
Atalanta faces serious squad issues due to key injuries like Marco Bakker and Davide Bellanova out; however, they have the upcoming return of defender Berat Djimsiti, who can strengthen their defense against a strong team like Roma.
Roma, motivated after a recent good victory against Genoa, keeps key players available despite some absences like Bailey still being out.
Coach Gasperini returns to his former club for this tense match — an emotional factor that could positively influence his visiting team.

📈 Tactical analysis and table:
Romas comfortable position among the top four gives the team confidence but also pressure to maintain positive results; Atalanta fights to improve their position in the table seeking European qualification — this increases their need to win at home.
Both teams have balanced offensive styles supported by solid defense, especially from the visitors; a closely contested game with small details likely to decide.

Final analysis:
The Bets Kenya model indicates higher predicted odds for all results compared to the actual odds, suggesting a negative value in the proposed bets (-5% or more). My analysis partially agrees as I see little positive margin only in betting on the home team win due to the strong home advantage despite injuries.
Suggestion 🏆 moderate betting on Atalantas victory, as there is a slight positive expected value (+0.8%) considering all technical, emotional, and statistical variables presented!

Overall, its a balanced matchup but playing at Gewiss Stadium should give a slight advantage to Atalanta. Stay tuned to the final lineups as they can change this dynamic! ⚽️🔥

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Atalanta x Roma?

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Analysis from Atalanta x Roma for the Italy Serie A – 3 of January

Latest news on Atalanta x Roma

Atalanta: Atalanta, led by Raffaele Palladino, recently suffered their ninth consecutive defeat to Inter, extending a streak of 16 matches without a win against the Nerazzurri. Palladino emphasized that the team fought until the final whistle; the squad faces several injuries – goalkeeper Marco Bakker is out due to an anterior cruciate ligament tear, forward Davide Bellanova is sidelined with a thigh tendon injury, while defender Berat Djimsiti is about to return after missing the match against Inter, and Ibrahima Kossounou is absent due to the Africa Cup of Nations. For the upcoming game against Genoa, Jeremie Sulemana and midfielder Hien were called up, while the team is trying a new defensive line led by Josip Kolasinac and Alessandro Scalvini. Financially, the club recorded a record revenue of 199 million euros in the 2025-26 season, boosted by earnings in European competitions, and proudly celebrating their 2024 Europa League victory.

AS Roma: AS Roma, coached by Gian Piero Gasperini, achieved a 3-1 victory in Serie A against Genoa on December 29, 2025, at the Olimpico, with goals from Soule, Koné, and Ferguson for the home team, while Ekhator scored for the visitors. Gasperini confirmed that Artem Dovbyk returned to the squad after a late recovery but will not start the match, Bailey remains out despite passing medical exams, and Tommaso Baldanzi replaces the injured Pellegrini in attack. The coach reaffirmed his confidence in Paulo Dybala’s quality and encouraged Koné to increase his goal tally, leaving Roma in fourth place as the new year begins.

Table analysis for the match between Atalanta and Roma

Atalanta: Atalanta is in 10th place with 22 points so far, a mid-table position, outside the qualification zone for European competitions and also far from relegation. Since they occupy a comfortable position in the table and have no real chances of reaching Champions League or Europa League spots, this game is not decisive for the team. The squad can use the match to test strategies, but the game has less direct impact on their season objectives.

Roma: Roma is in 4th place with 33 points, currently securing a spot in the Champions League. With just one point difference from the 3rd place and a tight margin for the teams behind, the match against Atalanta is very important to maintain their position or even try to improve their standing at the top of the table. Every point is valuable in the fight for top positions and to ensure direct qualification to the next Champions League.

Summary: The game is especially important for Roma, which is fighting for Champions League spots, while for Atalanta, the match has less direct importance in the table and season goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Atalanta x Roma

When the best bet on Atalanta x Roma is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1457948 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Should you bet on Atalanta?

🔵 Atalanta: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 42.12% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.16. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 420 times – this would give you a profit of $487.20
• And would lose other 580 times – having a loss of -$580.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$92.80.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 29.27%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 290 times – having a profit of $652.50;
• And would lose other 710 times – losing -$710.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$57.50.

Is betting on Roma worth it?

🔴 Roma: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 28.61%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.28. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 290 times – having a profit of $661.20;
• And would lose other 710 times – having a loss of -$710.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$48.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atalanta x Roma

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Atalanta
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atalanta x Roma

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Atalanta, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Atalanta.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atalanta x Roma

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.