Roma x Sassuolo Betting tips for January 10 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Roma x Sassuolo, Saturday, 10/1/2026

📅 10/1/2026 17:00

Roma 1.54

X 3.93

Sassuolo 6.00

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Roma x Sassuolo:

🔮 Roma wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Roma, you can win up to $770.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Roma x Sassuolo:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $194.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Sassuolo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $500.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Sassuolo, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Sassuolo conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Roma vs Sassuolo?

Lets analyze the match between Roma and Sassuolo at the Stadio Olimpico, which is Romas usual stadium, with a capacity of over 70,000 fans, ensuring a strong home advantage for the Romans.

📈 Positioning analysis: Roma has been showing greater offensive dominance and game control at home, averaging 13 shots per game against 11 from the opponent and a higher ball possession (56% vs. 44%). Additionally, they score about 2 goals per home game while conceding only 1. Sassuolo, on the other hand, has lower averages away from home: fewer shots (10), less possession (42%), and also concedes about 1 goal per game. This indicates Roma is better positioned in the table and more motivated to win in front of their fans.

Calculation of fair probabilities: The median odds suggest an approximate normalized implied probability: Roma win ~62%, draw ~16%, Sassuolo win ~10%. Considering recent offensive/defensive stats and the stadium factor, my estimate is close to this: home_pred_gpt ≈ 0.62, draw_pred_gpt ≈ 0.18, away_pred_gpt ≈ 0.20. Note that I give a slightly higher chance to a draw and an away win than the odds suggest due to Sassuolos ability to score even away.

Analysis of fair odds: Based on these adjusted probabilities:
– Fair odds for Roma victory are about 1.61
– For a draw about 5.55
– For Sassuolo victory about 5.00

Expected value (EV) calculation:
Using the final provided odds:
– EV Roma Win = ((1.533 /1.61) -1)*100 = -4.7%
– EV Draw = ((3.9 /5.55) -1)*100 = -29.7%
– EV Sassuolo Win = ((6.5 /5) -1)*100= +30%

Only the bet on Sassuolo to win shows a significant positive expected value (+30%), indicating a good opportunity according to this analysis.

📰 Relevant news:
Roma is dealing with complicated negotiations involving key reinforcements like Raspadori; this could impact team morale or focus despite the recent away win against Lecce.
Sassuolo faces important absences like Berardi injured and Bailey with recurring physical issues; however, they maintain a solid formation under experienced coach Fabio Grosso.
These factors could further balance the match, making the underdog bet more interesting due to the underestimated potential in current odds.

Final comparative analysis with Bets Kenya model:

– The Bets Kenya model suggests very low odds for Roma victory (~1.30), overestimating their extreme favoritism;
– And very high odds for a draw (~7+) or away win (~10+), significantly underestimating these possibilities;
– My analysis suggests real value only in betting on Sassuolo to win (+30% EV), while the model indicates value only on the home team but overestimates this favoritism.

Therefore, I partially disagree with the model: I agree that betting on the away team offers value due to the attractive odds compared to the teams actual conditions — even considering the clear advantage of the home team — but I dont see much value in such a low bet on the Roman victory as indicated by the model.

Betting on the Sassuolo to win, despite reported physical issues 🏥, seems to be a good profitable opportunity here! ⚽💰

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Roma x Sassuolo?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Roma x Sassuolo, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Roma x Sassuolo for the Italy Serie A – 10 of January

Latest news on Roma x Sassuolo

Roma: Romas last on-field success occurred on January 6, 2026, when Gian Piero Gasperinis team secured an away victory with a 2-0 win over Lecce, with goals from Lukasz Ferguson and Dmytro Dovbyk, while the coach chose to remain silent in the post-match interview due to growing frustration with delays in negotiations involving Zirkzee and Giacomo Raspadori; the following day, the club held a high-level transfer summit at Trigoria, with Dan Friedkin and former Juventus coach Claudio Ranieri acting as mediators, during which Roma confirmed they increased their offer for Raspadori and reiterated that any signing must be balanced by an exit to meet UEFA Financial Fair Play requirements.

Sassuolo: Sassuolo entered 2026 with a solid league position but has struggled to keep up, recording a 1-1 draw against Parma on January 3 with goals from Thorstvedt and Pellegrino, before facing Juventus three days later at Mapei Stadium, where they were defeated 3-0, with David opening the scoring and Miretti providing the assist; Emilias team lineup for the Juventus match included Muric in goal, a defensive line of Walukiewicz, Idzes, Muharemovic, and Doig, a midfield trio of Thorstvedt, Matic, and Koné, and an attacking trio of Iannoni, Pinamonti, and Laurienté, under coach Fabio Grosso, while dealing with several absences – Berardi remains injured and was replaced by Volpato, Conceição is sidelined for rest, Kellys availability is doubtful, and Leon Baileys season has been hampered by recurring thigh and hamstring issues that kept him out of recent games.

Italy Serie A table analysis for Roma x Sassuolo

Roma: Roma is currently in 5th place with 36 points, securing a spot in the UEFA Europa League so far. With a 2-point gap to 4th place Juventus, and 3 points to 6th place Como, this game is quite important for Roma to maintain or even improve their position, especially in search of a better spot in European competitions. A win could strengthen their campaign and provide a breather in the fight for qualification.

Sassuolo: Sassuolo is in 11th place with 23 points, far from both the international competition qualification zone and the relegation risk. Considering the comfortable distance from both ends of the table, this match has less direct impact on the pursuit of bigger goals this season for Sassuolo. Still, the team can use the game to gather points and improve their overall position, but the pressure is much lower compared to Roma.

Summary: The match is more decisive for Roma, which seeks to maintain or improve its position for access to European competitions. For Sassuolo, the game has moderate importance, as the team is in an intermediate position on the table without major threats. Therefore, the game is important for one of the teams, especially for Roma.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Roma x Sassuolo

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Roma x Sassuolo right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1460537 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Should you bet on Roma?

🔵 Roma: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 70.16% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.54. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 700 times – profiting $378.00;
• And would lose other 300 times – losing -$300.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$78.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 14.45% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.93. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 140 times – having a profit of $410.20;
• And would have lost other 860 times – with a loss of -$860.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$449.80.

Is it worth betting on Sassuolo?

🔴 Sassuolo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 15.39%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 6.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 150 times – profiting $750.00;
• And would lose other 850 times – having a loss of -$850.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$100.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match Roma x Sassuolo

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Roma
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Roma x Sassuolo

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.0 Roma and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.0 Roma.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Roma x Sassuolo

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.