Fiorentina x AC Milan Betting tips for January 11 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Fiorentina x AC Milan, Sunday, 11/1/2026

📅 11/1/2026 14:00

Fiorentina 3.85

X 3.47

AC Milan 1.91

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Fiorentina x AC Milan:

🔮 AC Milan wins the match
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Some important points for the tip for Fiorentina x AC Milan:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Fiorentina in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $20.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on AC Milan in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $204.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Fiorentina scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against AC Milan, Fiorentina scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Fiorentina x AC Milan, with Fiorentina as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Playing as the home team, Fiorentina conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against AC Milan.
👉 Fiorentina is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 home matches, it had at least 63.00% of possession.

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Fiorentina vs AC Milan:

Lets analyze the match between Fiorentina and AC Milan at Stadio Artemio Franchi, which is Fiorentinas usual stadium, giving them the home advantage. ⚽

📈 Fiorentina has shown a decent performance at home in recent matches, with 3 wins and 2 losses in the last 5 home games, averaging 1.8 goals per game and conceding about 1 goal per match. They maintain good ball possession (57%) and create more shots (17) than they concede (10), indicating an active offensive style.

AC Milan comes with a solid away record: in the last 5 away games, they scored an average of 1 goal per game and conceded about 1 goal as well. They have good possession (54%) and a balanced number of shots, but are less aggressive than Fiorentina in terms of shots on target.

Analyzing the median odds: Fiorentinas win is around 3.85, draw around 3.47, and Milans win around 1.93 — indicating a clear favoritism for Milan.

Normalizing the implied probabilities from the median odds gives approximately:

• Fiorentina win: ~24%
• Draw: ~27%
• Milan win: ~49%

Based on recent statistical data combined with these implied probabilities adjusted for the house margin, I estimate fair probabilities close to these — perhaps slightly more balanced due to Fiorentinas strong home advantage.

However, news reports indicate Fiorentina faces challenges this season with key injuries but has recent reinforcements like Pablo Marì returning to strengthen their defense; meanwhile, AC Milan maintains an almost complete squad with key players like Leão and Modrić ready to play after minor physical issues.

Given this, my analysis suggests value in betting on Fiorentinas victory, as despite the high odds (~3.7), they have enough offensive potential to surprise playing in their historic stadium where they usually dominate possession and create clear chances — plus, the unstable moment of the visiting team could work against them.

The betting model from Bets Kenya recommends betting on the home team (Fiorentina) with a positive expected value above +10%, which I fully agree with! The draw or away win do not present attractive expected value based on the recent stats and current team context.

Recommended bet: Fiorentina victory, estimated fair odds close to @3.7 – EV calculated by the model +11% 👍

📰 Recent news positively influenced this view, showing significant physical recovery in Fiorentinas starting lineup, while AC Milan still has some tactical doubts after minor injuries; this could further balance this tough duel at Stadio Artemio Franchi!

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Fiorentina x AC Milan?

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Analysis from Fiorentina x AC Milan for the Italy Serie A – 11 of January

Latest news on Fiorentina x AC Milan

Fiorentina: Fiorentina, coached by Paolo Vanoli, entered the Serie A match against Lazio on January 7 with a squad of 23 players, including starter Moise Kean, Robin Gosens in the starting lineup, and the return of Gudmundsson and Fagioli, while Edin Džeko, Jacopo Fazzini, Tommaso Martinelli, Richardson, and Viti remained out due to injury. The game ended in a 2-2 draw, with Gosens equalizing with a left-foot shot assisted by Fagioli, Kean scoring for Fiorentina, and Pedro converting a penalty for Lazio. During the match, Kean replaced Piccoli, Gosens was substituted by Ranieri, and Solomon, Nicolussi Caviglia, and Pablo Marì came on after Marì recovered from a one-month injury. Additionally, the club secured the loan of midfielder Brescianini with a mandatory purchase clause if the team stays in the league, and Pablo Marì was confirmed fit for upcoming matches.

AC Milan: AC Milan entered the 19th round of the 2025-26 Serie A at San Siro against Genoa on January 8, 2026, ending in a 1-1 draw with goals from Rafael Leão and Alessandro Colombo. The Rossoneri lined up almost the same team, with Christian Pulisic and Leão playing together for the first time this season, goalkeeper Mike Ma Ginn, and the defensive line formed by Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, and Ivan Pavlović, while the midfield included Sandro Fofana, Luka Modrić, Aurélien Rabiot, Brahim Saïd Saelemaekers, and Davide Bartesaghi. The bench featured newcomers Christopher Loftus-Cheek (fit after a minor training injury), Timo Füllkrug, and Christopher Nkunku (still sidelined due to ankle discomfort). Pulisic recovered from a flexor issue, and Leão managed a slight groin strain, but both were expected to start. Massimiliano Allegri celebrated his 200th game in charge, and the coaching staff confirmed that Modrić continues to impress with high-intensity training, Loftus-Cheek is available, and the club prepares to maintain momentum in upcoming matches.

Table analysis for the game between Fiorentina and AC Milan

Fiorentina: Fiorentina is in 18th position, in the relegation zone, with only 13 points. This match is crucial for them, as every point is vital to try to escape the drop zone and avoid direct relegation. There is still hope for recovery, and winning could be an important step to move away from the last place and the risk zone.

AC Milan: AC Milan is in 2nd place, with 39 points, in the Champions League qualification zone. Although close to the leader, a victory is important to pressure Inter Milan and keep the race for the top open. Losing points here could complicate the title fight, so the game is highly important to keep their ambitions alive.

Summary: This matchup is important for both teams — Fiorentina fights to escape relegation, while AC Milan aims to maintain their strong position among the leaders and continue competing for the Serie A title.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Fiorentina x AC Milan

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Fiorentina and AC Milan.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1460859 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Should you bet on Fiorentina?

🔵 Fiorentina: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 20.09%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.85. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 200 times – having a profit of $570.00;
• And would lose other 800 times – losing -$800.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$230.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 13.13% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.47. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 130 times – this would give you a profit of $321.10
• And would lose other 870 times – losing -$870.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$548.90.

Is betting on AC Milan worth it?

🔴 AC Milan: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 66.77%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.91. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 670 times – profiting $609.70;
• And would lose other 330 times – having a loss of -$330.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$279.70.

Handicaps analysis for the match Fiorentina x AC Milan

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Fiorentina
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Fiorentina x AC Milan

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Fiorentina, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Fiorentina.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.5 Fiorentina.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Fiorentina x AC Milan

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.