Arouca x Guimaraes Betting tips for February 7 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Arouca x Guimaraes, Saturday, 7/2/2026

📅 7/2/2026 20:30

Arouca 3.15

X 3.30

Guimaraes 2.20

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Arouca x Guimaraes:

🔮 Guimaraes wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Guimaraes, you can win up to $1100.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Arouca x Guimaraes:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Arouca in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-200.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Guimaraes in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $1688.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Arouca scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Arouca conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Guimaraes.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Arouca vs Guimaraes?

⚽ In the match between FC Arouca and Vitória SC, which will take place at Arouca Municipal Stadium, we have an interesting scenario to analyze. FC Arouca is in a delicate position on the table, occupying 15th place and fighting relegation, while Vitória SC is more comfortably placed in 9th. Statistically, Arouca has conceded more goals at home (average of 2 goals per game) and scored fewer (1 goal per game), also having less ball possession (45%) compared to the opponent, which has a higher average of goals scored away (2 goals) and better defensive performance.

📊 The implied probabilities of median odds indicate: home team victory around 31%, draw approximately 30%, and away team victory around 39%. After normalizing these probabilities to adjust for the house margin, we estimate fair values close to these numbers. However, considering recent statistics — such as FC Aroucas defensive issues at home and Vitória SCs good offensive form — our analysis suggests a higher probability for Vitória SC to win.

💡 Calculating the fair odds adjusted by qualitative data analysis: the fair odds for FC Aroucas victory are around 3.8-4.0 due to their defensive fragility; a draw around 3.5; and for Vitória SCs win, fair odds are around 2.1-2.3 reflecting their recent better away performance.

📈 In the table, this position difference reinforces that Vitória SC has less pressure on the match while FC Arouca urgently needs points to escape the danger zone — this can further motivate the visitors who are in a relatively better phase.

📰 Regarding recent news: FC Arouca has been facing clear difficulties this season with many lost games and a significant negative balance (-21). Vitória SC, on the other hand, is riding high after a recent important victory against Moreirense, showing confidence under current technical command.

Analyzing the expected values of bets given by the final odds versus our calculated fair odds:
– Positive expected value clearly appears in the bet for Vitória SC victory, with EV above +10%, indicating a good opportunity.
– Bets on the draw or the home win do not present enough positive expected value.

The Bets Kenya model also indicates positive value only on the bet for the visitor (Vitória SC), we fully agree! 🎯
Our recommendation is to bet on Vitória SC, as they have better recent offensive/defensive numbers, psychological advantage due to their position in the table, and favorable momentum in recent away matches.

Take advantage of this detailed analysis to make your informed bet! Good luck! 🍀

Looking for another bookie to bet on Arouca x Guimaraes?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Arouca x Guimaraes, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Arouca x Guimaraes for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 7 of February

Latest news on the match between Arouca and Guimaraes

FC Arouca: FC Arouca is struggling to avoid relegation in the Portugal Betclic League 2025-26, currently holding 15th place after 20 matches, with a record of five wins, five draws, and ten losses, a goal difference of -21, and 20 points. The clubs immediate focus is a home match against Vitória SC on February 7, 2026, at 20:30 UTC, followed by an away game against Casa Pia on February 14, 2026, at 15:30 UTC, and a return to Arouca Municipal Stadium to host Estoril Praia on April 3, 2026, at 11:00 UTC, as they seek to turn around a season that has seen far more losses than wins.

Vitória SC: Vitória de Guimarães (Vitória SC) is in ninth position in the Primeira Liga 2025-26, with a record of eight wins, four draws, and eight losses in 20 matches, a goal difference of -6, and 28 points. The team plays at home at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, with a capacity of 30,029 spectators, in Guimarães, under coach Luís Pinto. After a recent 1-0 victory over Moreirense, their next match will be against FC Arouca on February 7, 2026, at 20:30 UTC.

Table analysis for the match between Arouca and Guimaraes

Arouca: Arouca is in 14th place, with 20 points, just 1 point above the relegation zone (Casa Pia with 18 points). The team still faces a risk of relegation, so this match is very important to try to move away from danger and secure their stay in the Primeira Liga. Every point counts to ease the pressure and avoid the fight against relegation. ⚠️

Guimarães: Guimarães is in 9th place, with 28 points, in a more comfortable position on the table, far from both the relegation zone and the spots for European competitions. Although not threatened, the team can use this game to gain confidence and improve their position, but the match is not decisive for their main objectives at this stage of the championship. 🤷‍♂️

Summary: The game is of great importance for Arouca, which needs to earn points to escape relegation. For Guimarães, the game has less weight, serving more as a chance to adjust positions without immediate risk. Therefore, it is a very important confrontation for one team, and of lesser impact for the other.

Odds and handicap movements for Arouca x Guimaraes

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Arouca x Guimaraes.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Arouca x Guimaraes

When the best bet on Arouca x Guimaraes is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1475819 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is it a good idea to bet on Arouca?

🔵 Arouca: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 23.33% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.15. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 230 times – this would give you a profit of $494.50
• And would lose other 770 times – losing -$770.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$275.50.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 22.26%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $506.00;
• And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$274.00.

Is it worth betting on Guimaraes?

🔴 Guimaraes: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 54.41%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 540 times – having a profit of $648.00;
• And would have lost other 460 times – with a loss of -$460.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$188.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Arouca x Guimaraes

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Arouca
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Arouca x Guimaraes

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.5 Arouca, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Arouca.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Guimaraes.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Arouca x Guimaraes

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Arouca x Guimaraes