Benfica x Alverca Betting tips for February 8 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Benfica x Alverca, Sunday, 8/2/2026

📅 8/2/2026 20:30

Benfica 1.18

X 6.43

Alverca 15.00

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Benfica x Alverca:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Benfica x Alverca

Some important points for the tip for Benfica x Alverca:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Benfica in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $263.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Alverca in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-210.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Benfica scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 Benfica matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Alverca conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for Alverca as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Benfica vs Alverca?

🔥 Benfica is coming strong for this match against Alverca at Estádio da Luz, their true home, where they have a recent record of 4 wins and only 1 loss in the last 5 home games. With an average of 2.6 goals scored at home per game and conceding few (1.2), plus dominating offensive stats like an average of 18 shots per game and over 50% ball possession, the team shows full strength to secure another victory.

⚽ Meanwhile, Alverca faces clear difficulties away from home, with only one win in the last five away games and conceding many goals (average above 2). The team has less possession (36%) and fewer shots, indicating they will likely struggle against Benficas offensive power.

📈 In the standings, Benfica is in third place in the Primeira Liga, aiming to get closer to the leaders while preparing for important challenges in the Champions League. This gives the team extra motivation to maintain their good form in the national championship. Alverca is more relaxed in the middle of the table without immediate pressure for results.

📰 News confirms that Benfica is focused not only on the local league but also on European competitions under coach José Mourinho, boosting their morale and confidence for this home duel.

✅ Based on recent statistics and median odds from betting houses, the real chance of Benfica winning is high (~82%), a low draw (~11%), and an unlikely Alverca victory (~7%). The fair odds indicate positive value especially on betting for Benfica’s win with an expected value above 5%, confirming it as the best bet here.

💡 The Bets Kenya model suggests even higher odds for a draw or visiting team win, which seem overestimated compared to the current reality of the teams — I fully agree with betting on Benfica’s solid victory! Now is the time to seize this safe opportunity! ⚽🏆

Looking for another bookie to bet on Benfica x Alverca?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2026. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Benfica x Alverca for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 8 of February

The latest news about Benfica x Alverca

Benfica: Benfica is currently third in the Primeira Liga, ten points behind league leaders Porto, and under José Mourinhos management, they are preparing for the first leg of the Champions League qualifiers against Real Madrid on February 17. They achieved a dramatic 4-2 victory in Lisbon, with goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scoring the winning goal in the 98th minute, securing qualification on goal difference; in the national league, the team has matches against Tondela, Santa Clara, and a home game against Alverca on February 8 before the European fixture, while the clubs womens team advanced by defeating SC Braga 1-0 in the Portuguese Womens Cup semi-final on February 4.

Alverca: FC Alverca, which hosts its matches at the FC Alverca Sports Complex in Alverca-do-Ribatejo, is currently 10th in the Liga Portugal Betclic and will host Santa Clara on February 21, 2026, at 15:30 UTC, having previously faced Benfica in the season on February 8, 2026, at Estádio da Luz; the clubs U-17 team will play against Sporting CP U-17 on February 7, 2026, at 11:00 UTC in the National U-17 Championship, and the club also has U-19 teams that recently played against Académico Viseu U-19 and OS Belenenses U-19.

Portugal Primeira Liga table analysis for Benfica x Alverca

Benfica: Benfica is in 3rd place with 46 points, behind the leader FC Porto (55 points) and Sporting (51 points). The team is still fighting for a position that will secure a spot in European international competitions, such as the Europa League, and a victory in this game could increase their chances of surpassing the direct competitors. Therefore, the match is very important for Benfica to maintain or improve their position on the table.

Alverca: Alverca is in 10th place with 24 points, far from the qualification zone for European competitions, but also well away from the relegation zone. With a comfortable difference from teams threatened by relegation, the game has little influence on Alvercas overall situation, which possibly will not have major objectives to achieve in this final stretch. For them, the match is less decisive.

Summary: The confrontation is important for Benfica, which still seeks to improve its position on the table to secure a spot in international competitions, while for Alverca the game has less weight in the season. Thus, the duel is mainly relevant for one of the teams.

How the handicap and odds moved for Benfica x Alverca

Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for Benfica x Alverca (1X2, handicap and goals).

Tips for the 1×2 market for Benfica x Alverca

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Benfica x Alverca right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1475819 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is betting on Benfica worth it?

🔵 Benfica: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 87.9%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.18. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 880 times – having a profit of $158.40;
• And would lose other 120 times – having a loss of -$120.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$38.40 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 9.11% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 6.43. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 90 times – this would give you a profit of $488.70
• And would have lost other 910 times – with a loss of -$910.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$421.30.

Is it worth betting on Alverca?

🔴 Alverca: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 2.98%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 15.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 30 times – this would give you a profit of $420.00
• And would lose other 970 times – having a loss of -$970.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$550.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Benfica x Alverca

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Benfica
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Benfica x Alverca

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.5 Benfica and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -2.0 Benfica.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 2.0 Alverca.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Benfica x Alverca

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Benfica x Alverca