Roma x Cagliari Betting tips for February 9 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Roma x Cagliari, Monday, 9/2/2026

📅 9/2/2026 19:45

Roma 1.44

X 4.18

Cagliari 7.50

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Roma x Cagliari:

🔮 Cagliari wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Cagliari, you can win up to $3750.00!

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Important information for your tip for Roma x Cagliari:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $44.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Cagliari in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $400.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Cagliari, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 Cagliari matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Cagliari conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Roma has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Cagliari playing at home.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Roma vs Cagliari:

Lets analyze the match between Roma and Cagliari at the Stadio Olimpico, which is Romas usual stadium, giving them the home advantage. Recent statistics show that Roma has a solid home performance with an average of 2 goals scored per game and only 1 conceded, along with controlling possession (59%) and creating more chances (16 shots per game). Cagliaris away stats are more modest, with an average of 1 goal scored and 2 conceded, less possession (46%), and fewer accurate shots.

Median odds indicate a strong favoritism for Roma to win (1.43), a draw around 4.2, and an unlikely Cagliari victory (7.5). Converting these odds into normalized implied probabilities gives approximately: Roma win ~65%, draw ~22%, Cagliari win ~13%. Considering the offensive/defensive stats and the confirmed home advantage at Stadio Olimpico, this distribution makes sense.

The Bets Kenya model suggests predicted odds slightly higher for Romas victory (~1.66), indicating a lower probability than the median odds suggest; for the draw (~4.79) and away win (~5.28), it assigns higher probabilities than the implied ones — especially valuing the visitors chance to win with a high positive expected value (+42%).

However, recent data shows that despite Cagliaris good form with three consecutive wins including a thrashing of Verona without conceding goals — an important fact 📰 — they face a technically superior team playing at their traditional stadium where they clearly dominate offensive actions 📈. Additionally, news indicates Roma faces financial constraints but maintains a competitive squad focused on the Europa League; this may impact motivation but shouldnt significantly weaken their strength against a weaker opponent.

Based on this, my assessment is that the model overestimates Cagliaris chances here; a more realistic probability is for Roma to win or a balanced draw due to Romas superior technical quality at home. Therefore, I do not fully agree with betting on the away victory as a value bet due to the high risk.

Suggested Bet: Roma victory, as they show better overall performance in recent home games combined with the confirmed home advantage at Stadio Olimpico.
Estimated expected value: Moderately positive, around +10%, considering the adjustment of real probabilities versus the market.

📰 News: Cagliaris recent positive momentum warrants caution for a simple bet on Roma; internal financial constraints may affect the Romans full focus.
📈 Table analysis: The comfortable position or punctual need may influence team motivation; in this case, both seek important points but the clear advantage is for the home team due to their demonstrated technical quality in recent data.

Overall, I recommend following a conservative approach, valuing Romas strong home advantage in this direct confrontation against a less consistent away team!

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Analysis from Roma x Cagliari for the Italy Serie A – 9 of February

Latest news about Roma x Cagliari

AS Roma: Currently, AS Roma is facing a tight financial and sporting schedule: the club has informed star forwards Paulo Dybala and Lorenzo Pellegrini that any new contracts must stay below the annual salary cap of 4 million euros, with similar cuts demanded from Zeki Çelik (who requests nearly 4 million euros despite a base of 2 million) and Stephan El Shaarawy, who is willing to accept a 50% reduction to stay. The Serie A team has already paid a fine of 2 million euros for 2022-23 and a fine of 3 million euros for 2023-24 under the UEFA Settlement Agreement and now faces an estimated penalty of 4 million euros for the 2024-25 season because their salary-to-revenue ratio may exceed the new limits of the “Squad Cost Rule”. On the field, Roma qualified for the Europa League round of 16 (March 12 and 19), and the UEFA squad list includes goalkeepers Gollini, Svilar, and De Marzi; defenders Çelik, Ghilardi, Hermoso, Mancini, Ndicka, Rensch, Tsimikas, Wesley, and Ziolkowski; midfielders Cristante, El Aynaoui, Koné, and Pisilli; and forwards Dybala, El Shaarawy, Ferguson, Malen, Pellegrini, Soulé, and Zaragoza. Coach Gian Piero Gasperini, facing a limited transfer window, confirmed the arrivals of Robinio Vaz and Malen but still lacks an option for the left wing, while warning that continued failure to meet squad cost targets could trigger additional penalties. Club president Dan Friedkin and legendary former player Francesco Totti are reportedly discussing a symbolic return of Totti, a move that divided fans and drew caution from former coach Claudio Ranieri. Ranieri also reiterated Friedkin’s ambition to reach the Champions League in the short term and eventually compete for the Scudetto, noting that the new stadium reinforces the club’s long-term vision.

Cagliari: Cagliari recently celebrated a decisive 4-0 victory over Verona on January 31, 2026, with goals from Mazzitelli, Kilicsoy, Sulemana, and Idrissi, marking their third consecutive league win and pushing them into the upper left quadrant of the Serie A table; coach Marco Pisacane maintained a 4-3-2-1 formation with Caprile in goal, Zé Pedro, Mina, Luperto, and Obert forming the defensive line, midfield anchored by Adopo, Gaetano, and Mazzitelli, creative roles played by Palestra and Sebastiano Esposito, and Kilicsoy leading the attack. Now, the team turns its attention to the rescheduled match against Roma, set for early February, where they will likely keep a similar formation and benefit from their recent clean sheet victory.

Table analysis for the game between Roma and Cagliari

Roma: Roma is in 5th place with 43 points, aiming to secure their spot in the UEFA Europa League. As they are close to 4th place, which guarantees a spot in the Champions League, this game is very important to try to climb the table and secure a better position in international competitions next season. A win could bring them closer to the leaders, while a loss might hinder their ambitions.

Cagliari: Cagliari is in 12th place with 28 points, quite far from the European qualification zone and also above the relegation zone. Despite that, the team needs to gather points to move away from any risk and seek a better position on the table. Therefore, the game has moderate importance for Cagliari, which is looking for stability in the league.

Summary: The match is very important for Roma, which fights to move up the table and qualify for bigger competitions, while for Cagliari, the game has moderate importance, focusing more on safety and avoiding approaching the relegation zone.

Odds and handicap movements for Roma x Cagliari

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Roma x Cagliari.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Roma x Cagliari

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Roma x Cagliari right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1476248 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is betting on Roma worth it?

🔵 Roma: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 60.54% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.44. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 610 times – this would give you a profit of $268.40
• And would have lost other 390 times – with a loss of -$390.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$121.60.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.04% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.18. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 210 times – profiting $667.80;
• And would lose other 790 times – losing -$790.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$122.20.

Is betting on Cagliari worth it?

🔴 Cagliari: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 18.43% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 7.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 180 times – this would give you a profit of $1170.00
• And would lose other 820 times – having a loss of -$820.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$350.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Roma x Cagliari

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Roma
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Roma x Cagliari

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Roma, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.25 Roma.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.25 Cagliari.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Roma x Cagliari

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Roma x Cagliari