Santa Clara x Benfica Betting tips for February 13 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Santa Clara x Benfica, Friday, 13/2/2026

📅 13/2/2026 18:30

Santa Clara 7.50

X 4.15

Benfica 1.44

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Santa Clara x Benfica:

🔮 Santa Clara wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Santa Clara, you can win up to $3750.00!

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $2075.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Santa Clara x Benfica:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Santa Clara in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Benfica in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-367.0.
👉 In the last 4 Benfica matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Santa Clara conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Santa Clara conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Benfica.
👉 It is not a good time for Santa Clara as home team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last home matches.
👉 Even as a visitor, Benfica won the last 3 head-to-head matches Santa Clara´s territory

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Santa Clara vs Benfica?

⚽ In the match between Santa Clara and Benfica at São Miguel Stadium, the scenario is quite clear: Santa Clara is going through a tough phase, sitting in 16th place in the Portugal Betclic League with only 17 points from 21 games, while Benfica has a much better performance and confidence after securing a spot in the Champions League knockout stage. The statistics show that Santa Clara struggles offensively and defensively at home (averaging 1 goal scored and 2 conceded), and has not won any of the last five home games. Benfica, on the other hand, has a balanced average of goals scored and conceded away from home (1 for and 1 against), with clear dominance in shots (20 per game vs. 9 by the opponent) and ball possession (60%).

📈 The league table disparity reinforces this gap: while Santa Clara fights to escape relegation, desperately needing points to improve their situation, Benfica aims to maintain pressure on the league leaders. This need further emphasizes the visiting team’s favoritism.

📰 Recent news highlight that Santa Clara faces a difficult run with important matches ahead, including this clash against the powerful Benfica. The club also benefits from strong local support at São Miguel Stadium, their usual home ground. Conversely, Benfica is experiencing internal tension but remains focused on European and national competitions under experienced management.

Analyzing the median odds offered by betting houses (7.5 for Santa Clara win; 4.15 for draw; 1.44 for Benfica win), adjusted for the house margin, we get approximate normalized implied probabilities: home win ~11%, draw ~26%, away win ~63%. Considering recent offensive/defensive stats and the emotional/motivational context from the news — especially Santa Clara’s clear fragility — my fair estimate would be close to or slightly more favorable to the visiting team.

The betting model from Clube da Aposta suggests higher positive value for the home win (~16% EV), followed by the draw (~6%). I disagree with this view because the data indicates Santa Clara’s recent low offensive capacity combined with Benfica’s clear superior strength even outside their usual domains — here they play at the opponent’s stadium but is it a neutral field? No! It’s indeed Santa Clara’s home, as confirmed by São Miguel Stadium being their official stadium.

Therefore, my recommendation is to avoid betting on the underdog or draw here due to the low offensive potential and poor situation of the home team; betting on the safe or almost certain Benfica victory, even with lower odds (~1.44-1.52), seems to be the best rational choice without unnecessary risks 🚀.

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Analysis from Santa Clara x Benfica for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 13 of February

The latest news about Santa Clara x Benfica

Santa Clara: Santa Clara is facing difficulties in the Portugal Betclic League, currently in 16th place after 21 matches, with a record of four wins, five draws, and twelve losses, a goal difference of –10, and 17 points. Their most recent league match was a home defeat by 2-4 against Estoril on January 31, 2026. The team will face a tough run of fixtures, starting with a home game against CF Estrela Amadora on February 7, 2026, followed by a high-profile clash against Benfica on February 13, 2026, at São Miguel Stadium. The U23 team, coached by Nélson Antunes, is in 7th place in the U23 Revelation League and will play against Famalicão U23 on February 10, 2026. Meanwhile, Santa Clara B, competing in the Azores Football Championship, secured a 2-0 victory over SC Praiense and has a match scheduled against GD São Roque Açores on February 22, 2026.

Benfica: Benfica had a mixed start to the 2025-26 season under José Mourinho, trailing the leader FC Porto by seven points and facing tense confrontations with fans during training after being eliminated from both national cups. However, they secured a dramatic spot in the Champions League knockout stage by beating Real Madrid 4-2 in the final group stage match, with goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scoring in the eighth minute of added time. The team now faces Real Madrid again in the first leg of the playoffs on February 17 in Lisbon, while also preparing for the Portugal League match against Santa Clara. Rumors suggest Mourinho might be called upon to manage the Portuguese national team after the 2026 World Cup, with former Sporting coach Rúben Amorim mentioned as a possible replacement.

Table analysis for the match between Santa Clara x Benfica

Santa Clara: Santa Clara is in 16th place, the last outside the direct relegation zone, with 17 points. This game is crucial for the team, which is still in the “Relegation Playoffs” zone and desperately needs to earn points to try to escape this tight situation. Every point counts to avoid direct relegation or playoff contention, and facing Benfica is an important challenge to improve their situation.

Benfica: Although in 3rd place with 49 points and already secured a spot in the UEFA Europa League qualification zone, Benfica has everything to gain by maintaining pressure on the league leaders and securing an even better position. Therefore, for Benfica, the game still holds some importance to try to reduce the gap to the top teams and secure a strong place for European competitions.

Summary: The match is very important for Santa Clara, fighting against relegation, and of medium importance for Benfica, which aims to establish itself among the leaders for international competitions. A confrontation with different levels of importance for each team, but certainly with effort from both sides.

How the handicap and odds moved for Santa Clara x Benfica

Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for Santa Clara x Benfica (1X2, handicap and goals).

Tips for the 1×2 market for Santa Clara x Benfica

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Santa Clara and Benfica.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1479066 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is it a good idea to bet on Santa Clara?

🔵 Santa Clara: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 16.3% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 7.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 160 times – having a profit of $1040.00;
• And would have lost other 840 times – with a loss of -$840.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$200.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.7%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.15. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $787.50
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$37.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on Benfica?

🔴 Benfica: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 59.0% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.44. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 590 times – this would give you a profit of $259.60
• And would have lost other 410 times – with a loss of -$410.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$150.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match Santa Clara x Benfica

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.25 Santa Clara
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Santa Clara x Benfica

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +1.25 Santa Clara and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +1.25 Santa Clara.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Santa Clara x Benfica

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Santa Clara x Benfica