Lazio x Atalanta Betting tips for February 14 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Lazio x Atalanta, Saturday, 14/2/2026

📅 14/2/2026 17:00

Lazio 3.25

X 3.20

Atalanta 2.24

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Lazio x Atalanta:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Lazio x Atalanta

Some important points for the tip for Lazio x Atalanta:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Lazio in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-280.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Atalanta in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-47.0.
👉 In the last 5 Atalanta matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 Lazio matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Lazio conceded at least 2 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Lazio conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Atalanta.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Lazio vs Atalanta?

Lets analyze the Lazio vs Atalanta match at the Stadio Olimpico, which is Lazios usual stadium, giving them the home advantage. Recent statistics show that Lazio has demonstrated some defensive fragility at home (an average of 1.8 goals conceded per game in the last 5 home matches) and a less productive attack (1 goal per game). Meanwhile, Atalanta shows a solid performance away from home with an average of only 0.4 goals conceded and 1.8 goals scored per match in recent league games.

The implied probabilities of median odds are: Lazio win ~32%, draw ~31%, Atalanta win ~44%. After normalization to total 100%, we get approximately: home_pred_gpt = 0.32, draw_pred_gpt = 0.31, away_pred_gpt = 0.44.

Considering the offensive and defensive stats of the teams, along with recent form — where Atalanta has more consecutive wins and better away performance — my fair estimate for the probabilities would be close to these: a slight edge for Atalanta to win.

Calculating the fair odds based on these probabilities, we have:

• Lazio: ~3.13
• Draw: ~3.23
• Atalanta: ~2.27

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers (Lazio @3.4; Draw @3.25; Atalanta @2.15), we see value in betting on Lazios victory due to the odds being higher than my fair estimate (positive EV above +5%). Betting on a draw or Atalantas win does not show positive expected value according to this analysis.

📰 News:
Lazio faces important absences like Cristian Romagnoli suspended and some injuries, but recently strengthened their squad with Daniel Maldini loaned from Atalanta — this could give the team an extra boost in their quest for recovery after mixed recent results.
Atalanta also suffers significant absences like Scamacca injured and suspensions, but maintains good overall form with key players like Krstović in scoring form.

📈 Positioning analysis:
The table shows a tight race among the teams in this part of the season, increasing the need for both sides to seek valuable points to maintain or improve their positions for European competitions or to avoid relegation.
The pressure to win could make the game even more balanced and unpredictable.

Final analysis:
The Bets Kenya model suggests value in Lazios victory (@3.27) with a positive EV (~+3.9%), but my calculation indicates that this expected value could be even higher considering the visiting absences and the stadium advantage for Lazio.
Therefore, I fully agree with the models tip indicating a value bet on Lazio to win. Its a good opportunity for those seeking returns above the average odds offered by the market! ⚽🔥

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Analysis from Lazio x Atalanta for the Italy Serie A – 14 of February

Latest news on Lazio x Atalanta

Lazio: In mid-February 2026, Lazio, managed by Maurizio Sarri, completed their winter transfer dealings by adding Daniel Maldini on loan from Atalanta (fee of 1 million euros with an option to buy for 13 million euros), along with the newly arrived Edoardo Motta and Adrian Przyborek, all presented at a press conference on February 6. Sporting director Angelo Fabiani defended the clubs management regarding Cristian Romagnolis departure and called for a calmer tone; Romagnoli is currently suspended, and Patric Alaix is expected to fill the central defender position. After a 2-2 draw against Juventus in Serie A, the team eliminated Bologna 2-1 in the Coppa Italia quarter-finals and is now preparing for a semi-final against Atalanta, despite several injuries and absences.

Atalanta: Atalanta maintained their strong performance in Serie A with a 2-1 victory over Cremonese on February 9, thanks to goals from Nikola Krstović and Davide Zappacosta, while Cremoneses only goal was scored by Thorsby. The victory follows a 3-0 win over Juventus in the Coppa Italia quarter-finals and places Krstović tied for the league top scorer with Lautaro Martínez, both with seven goals. However, the team will face setbacks with the absences of Gianluca Scamacca (hip discomfort) and Charles De Ketelaere (meniscus injury), along with suspensions for Marten De Roon and Ahanor. Bakker has returned from an anterior cruciate ligament tear. The next league challenge is a home match against Lazio on February 14.

Table analysis for the match between Lazio x Atalanta

Lazio: Lazio is in 8th place with 33 points, close to Atalanta, which is in 7th with 39 points. The points difference between them is 6, which still allows Lazio to dream of a spot in international competitions, especially the Conference League, since they are near that zone. Therefore, this match is important for Lazio, which can try to reduce the gap and climb positions on the table to secure at least one continental spot.

Atalanta: Atalanta holds 7th place with 39 points, still fighting for a European spot, possibly in the Conference League. With a 6-point advantage over Lazio behind them, the team has the chance to increase this difference and solidify its position among the teams competing in international tournaments. Thus, the game is quite important to maintain the distance from rivals and ensure qualification for the next season.

Summary: The match is important for both teams, especially in the fight for spots in European competitions. Lazio aims to close the gap and get closer to the qualification zone, while Atalanta wants to maintain or increase the lead to secure its position on the table. Therefore, a game with a lot at stake for both sides! ⚽🔥

How the handicap and odds moved for Lazio x Atalanta

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Lazio x Atalanta.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Lazio x Atalanta

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Lazio x Atalanta right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1479379 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is betting on Lazio worth it?

🔵 Lazio: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.79%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 310 times – having a profit of $697.50;
• And would lose other 690 times – having a loss of -$690.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$7.50. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 29.38% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 290 times – having a profit of $638.00;
• And would lose other 710 times – losing -$710.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$72.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Atalanta?

🔴 Atalanta: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 39.83% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.24. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 400 times – this would give you a profit of $496.00
• And would lose other 600 times – losing -$600.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$104.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Lazio x Atalanta

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Lazio
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Lazio x Atalanta

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Lazio and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Lazio.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Lazio.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Lazio x Atalanta

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Lazio x Atalanta