Santa Clara x Benfica Betting tips for February 13 in Portugal Primeira Liga
| 📅 13/2/2026 18:30 |
 Santa Clara7.25 |
X 4.00 |
Benfica  1.45 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Santa Clara x Benfica:
🔮 Santa Clara wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Santa Clara, you can win up to $3625.00!
Some important points for the tip for Santa Clara x Benfica:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Santa Clara in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Benfica in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-367.0.
👉 In the last 4 Benfica matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Santa Clara conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Santa Clara conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Benfica.
👉 It is not a good time for Santa Clara as home team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last home matches.
👉 Even as a visitor, Benfica won the last 3 head-to-head matches Santa Clara´s territory
🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Lets analyze the match between Santa Clara and Benfica that will take place at São Miguel Stadium, home of Santa Clara. 🏟️
📈 Santa Clara is in a tough spot in the table, holding 16th place with only 17 points in 21 games, while Benfica is much better positioned (3rd place). This clearly shows a difference in quality and a need for a win for the home team, which is fighting relegation. Benfica comes energized after an exciting victory in the Champions League against Real Madrid and has a stronger, more offensive squad.
Statistically, Santa Clara has scored an average of 0.8 goals in recent home games (4 goals in 5 matches) but has conceded quite a few defensively (1.6 goals conceded per game). Benfica, on the other hand, shows superior offensive numbers even away from home: an average of 2.2 goals scored in the last five league games and a solid defense with only about 0.8 goals conceded per away game.
Analyzing the median odds offered by bookmakers: Santa Clara victory pays about 7.38 times the bet; a draw pays approximately 4 times; Benficas win is low-priced, around 1.44 – reflecting their clear favoritism.
Converting these odds into normalized fair probabilities, we get something close to:
- Santa Clara win: ~12%
- Draw: ~29%
- Benfica win: ~59%
Based on recent offensive/defensive stats and their position in the table, I would slightly adjust these probabilities to further increase Benficas chances of winning (~65%), reduce the chances of a draw (~25%), and further decrease the home win chances (~10%). This is because, besides the obvious technical superiority, the recent form shows Santa Clara hasnt won in several games, while Benfica is confident after major international results.
Therefore, my fair odds would be approximately:
- Santa Clara: ~10 (high difficulty to win)
- Draw: ~4
- Benfica: ~1.54
The analysis of the final odds confirms this trend, with a positive expected value only for the away team (Benfica), as their final odds are close to my estimated fair odds or even slightly higher, indicating value in this bet.
Suggested bet by the Bets Kenya model:
- Bet on the Home Team Win – high positive EV according to the model;
However, I disagree with this suggestion! Although high odds pay well for the home win, the data shows this is unlikely given Santa Claras recent poor performance both overall and at home.
My recommendation is to bet on the Benfica victory, as there is real value considering their superior technical strength + recent form + recent news.
The expected value calculated for this bet is around +15% or more depending on the exact final odds considered.
📰 Important news:
Santa Clara is fighting relegation with a weak campaign; Benfica, however, is motivated after an epic victory over Real Madrid in the Champions League under Mourinho — boosting the visitors confidence.
📈 Current position emphasizes the desperate need of the home team vs the clear favoritism of the strong visiting team.
Final summary:
Despite good odds paying for the Santa Clara upset, the facts clearly favor the powerful visiting Benfica team — my safe choice here is to bet on the away win!
⚽ Good luck with your bets! 🍀💰
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Analysis from Santa Clara x Benfica for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 13 of February
🏟️ Santa Clara X Benfica – Portugal Primeira Liga
📅 13 of February, 2026 – 18:30
🔵 Santa Clara – Winning probability: 17.88% | Fair line: 5.59
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 26.12% | Fair line: 3.83
🔴 Benfica – Winning probability: 56.01% | Fair line: 1.79
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.25 Santa Clara
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks
Latest news on Santa Clara x Benfica
Santa Clara: Santa Clara is facing difficulties in the Liga Portugal Betclic, currently in 16th place with 4 wins, 5 draws, and 12 losses, a goal difference of -10, and 17 points after 21 matches; their most recent result was a 1-0 defeat to CF Estrela Amadora on February 7, 2026, and they will face a tough challenge against Benfica at São Miguel Stadium on February 13, 2026. The clubs upcoming fixtures also include a match against AVS – Futebol SAD on March 15, 2026, while the U-23 team, currently 7th in the U23 Liga Revelação, will play against Famalicão U23 on February 10, 2026.
Benfica: Benfica, managed by coach José Mourinho, recently achieved a dramatic 4-2 victory in the Champions League playoffs over Real Madrid, thanks to a late goal from goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin, and will face the Spanish giants again in the second leg on February 17, 2026; their form in the national league remains mixed, sitting seven points behind leaders Porto and having been eliminated from cups, with their next domestic game against FC Alverca on February 8, 2026, in Liga Portugal Betclic. Growing speculation links Mourinho to the Portuguese national team coaching job after the 2026 World Cup, with former Benfica player and ex-Manchester United coach Nuno Amorim mentioned as a likely successor if Mourinho leaves the club.
Table analysis for the match between Santa Clara and Benfica
Santa Clara: Santa Clara is in 16th place, in the relegation playoff zone, with 17 points. The team is fighting to avoid direct relegation and has little room for error. This match against Benfica will be crucial to try to earn points and escape the danger zone. Every point is valuable and helps maintain the chances of staying in the Primeira Liga, making the game very important for them.
Benfica: Benfica is in 3rd place with 49 points, securing a spot in the UEFA Europa League Qualification. Although they are out of the direct title race (since 1st place has 56 points), Benfica aims to stay or even move up the table to secure better positions in European competitions. Therefore, the match is important to maintain stability at the top of the table and consolidate their continental spot.
Summary: The game is important for both teams but for different reasons: for Santa Clara, it’s a battle to avoid relegation, while for Benfica, it’s an opportunity to confirm their place in European competitions and strengthen their position in the table.
How the handicap and odds moved for Santa Clara x Benfica
We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Santa Clara x Benfica.
Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.
📊 The odds for Santa Clara had a slight Decreased of -6.25%: the market opened with odds of @8.0 for Santa Clara and now the odds are @7.5.
📊 With a variation of -3.85%, the odds for Draw are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @3.9 for Draw and now the odds are @3.75.
📊 With a variation of 3.45%, the odds for Benfica are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @1.45 for Benfica and now the odds are @1.5.
📊 The main handicap is stable: the current handicap of 1.00 for Benfica is exactly the same from its opening.
📊 The Goal Market remains stable: the current handicap of 2.25 goals is exactly the same from its opening.
Tips for the Match Odds market for Santa Clara x Benfica
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Santa Clara x Benfica right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1479066 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Is it worth betting on Santa Clara?
🔵 Santa Clara: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 17.88% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 7.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 180 times – profiting $1125.00;
- And would have lost other 820 times – with a loss of -$820.00 because of them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$305.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 26.12% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 260 times – profiting $780.00;
- And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$40.00.
Is betting on Benfica worth it?
🔴 Benfica: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 56.01% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.45. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 560 times – profiting $252.00;
- And would lose other 440 times – losing -$440.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$188.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Santa Clara x Benfica
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.25 Santa Clara
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Santa Clara x Benfica
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +1.25 Santa Clara, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +1.0 Santa Clara.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.0 Benfica.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Santa Clara x Benfica
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Santa Clara x Benfica
Who is the favourite for Santa Clara x Benfica?
Based on our calculations, the team most likely to win is Benfica, with an estimated chance of 56.01%. Remember: surprises happen in football!
Who will win: Santa Clara x Benfica?
It is important to remember that sports betting offers no guarantees. However, our analysis indicates that Benfica is more likely to win, with an estimated probability of 56.01%. Betting involves risk—bet responsibly!
What are the chances of Santa Clara beating Benfica today?
Based on our calculations, in every 100 matches we estimate Santa Clara would win about 18 of those against Benfica.
What are the chances of Benfica beating Santa Clara today?
Based on our calculations, in every 100 matches we estimate Benfica would win about 56 of those versus Santa Clara.
Which team should I bet on: Santa Clara or Benfica?
A good bettor always searches for positive expected value bets. Our analysis suggests: Santa Clara wins as the best pick, with EV of 34.17%. Bet responsibly and practice sound bankroll management: keep stakes under 2% of your capital!
How much is Santa Clara paying today? See what you can win by betting on Santa Clara x Benfica:
The odds for Santa Clara to beat Benfica today are around 7.25. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh7250.00 if Santa Clara wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
How much is Benfica paying today? See what you can win by betting on Santa Clara x Benfica:
The odds for Benfica to beat Santa Clara today are around 1.45. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh1450.00 if Benfica wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
