Tondela x Alverca Betting tips for February 13 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Tondela x Alverca, Friday, 13/2/2026

📅 13/2/2026 20:45

Tondela 2.50

X 3.10

Alverca 2.73

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Tondela x Alverca:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Tondela x Alverca

Some important points for the tip for Tondela x Alverca:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Tondela in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-275.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Alverca in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-210.0.
👉 In the last 3 Alverca matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Alverca conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for Alverca as away team: it comes from 4 losses in a row in its last away matches.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Tondela vs Alverca:

Lets analyze the match between Tondela and Alverca that will take place at João Cardoso Stadium, home of Tondela. The stadium has a capacity of 7,500 spectators, which could create a favorable environment for the home team.

📈 Table analysis: Tondela is in a delicate situation in the Portugal Betclic League, occupying 17th place with only 14 points in 21 games, fighting against relegation. Meanwhile, Alverca is more comfortable in the table, in 10th place with 24 points. This difference in position indicates that Tondela will need a win more urgently to escape danger, while Alverca can play more relaxed.

📰 Recent news: Tondela has been facing serious difficulties and has a tight schedule in February, possibly being physically and psychologically worn out. On the other hand, the clubs youth teams are doing well, but this does not directly impact the main team now. Alverca is in a relatively better phase and has a young squad under coach Custódio.

Analyzing recent statistics:
– Tondela scores a low average (1 goal per home game) and concedes goals at the same rate (1 goal per game). Additionally, their possession average is low (32%), indicating difficulty in controlling matches.
– Alverca has a similar average of goals scored away (1 goal), but concedes more goals (2 per game), showing defensive fragility.
– Offensively, both teams have similar shot accuracy (~3), but defensively, both suffer quite a few shots (~5).
– Alvercas higher possession away (37%) is still less than their opponents.

Calculating fair odds based on median odds:
– Implicit probabilities: Home win = 1/2.55 ≈ 0.392; Draw = 1/3.10 ≈ 0.323; Away win = 1/2.72 ≈ 0.368
– Sum: ≈ 1.083
– Normalizing: Home ≈36%, Draw ≈30%, Away ≈34%

Considering the statistical data and news:
The scenario shows a balance between the teams with a slight advantage to the visitor due to their better position and slightly better recent form.

The final odds indicate higher value for a draw (3, close to my fair prediction) and an attractive away win.

The Bets Kenya model predicts higher odds for all results compared to the medians, suggesting less confidence in traditional outcomes — it does not see positive value in bets according to its negative EVs.

My analysis suggests caution as no bet has an expected value above +5% needed to be considered a good bet.

However, if I had to choose, I would bet on a draw or even the visitors win, given the offensive statistics versus defensive fragility on both sides — especially since the home team is under pressure but without recent offensive production.

In summary: ⚽️ A balanced game in a stadium known for the home team; high pressure on them due to the table; visitors better technically but vulnerable at the back; fair probabilities indicate almost a tie among the three options; Bets Kenya model does not point to positive value in current odds.

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Analysis from Tondela x Alverca for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 13 of February

Latest news on Tondela x Alverca

Tondela: Tondela is currently struggling at the bottom of the Liga Portugal Betclic standings, holding 17th place after 21 matches with only three wins, five draws, and 13 losses, a negative goal difference of 21, and 14 points, firmly placing the team in the relegation battle. The main team’s schedule in February is quite busy, having hosted Estoril Praia on February 7, traveled to face FC Alverca on February 13, and played away against CF Estrela Amadora on February 22. Meanwhile, the club’s youth categories are experiencing better moments: the U-19 team is at the top of its Southern relegation group, with matches against OS Belenenses U-19 on February 21 and União Torreense U-19 on February 28, while the U-17 competes in the national championship after a recent 2-1 defeat to Leixões SC U-17.

Alverca: Alverca is currently in 10th place in the Liga Portugal Betclic for the 2025-26 season after 21 games, with a record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, a negative goal difference of 15, and 24 points; they play their home matches at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, with a capacity of 6,900 spectators. Under coach Custódio, the team has an average age of 23.5 years and only one foreign player. Recently, the team earned a 1-1 draw against CF Estrela Amadora and has upcoming fixtures against Benfica on February 8, 2026, Santa Clara on February 21, 2026, Vitória SC on February 28, 2026, and AVS-Futebol SAD on March 8, 2026.

Table analysis for the game between Tondela and Alverca

Tondela: Tondelas situation is quite delicate. With 14 points and in the penultimate position (17th place), the team is in the relegation zone and desperately needs to earn points to try to escape relegation. This match against Alverca is crucial, as a victory could be key to maintaining hope of staying in the Primeira Liga. Every point from now on is a direct fight to avoid relegation, and Tondela must seize this chance as a life-or-death decision for their season. ⚠️

Alverca: Alverca is in 10th place, with 24 points, in a comfortable position on the table, far from the relegation zone and also distant from spots for European competitions. The game is not decisive for Alverca, which can use this match to experiment or focus on other strategies, as they are not at immediate risk nor have a real chance to fight for titles or qualify for international competitions in this round. It’s a lower-pressure game for them. ⚽

Summary: The game is of utmost importance for Tondela, which fights against relegation, while for Alverca the match has little direct impact on the standings. Therefore, it is an important confrontation for only one of the teams.

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Tondela x Alverca

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Tondela x Alverca.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Tondela x Alverca

When the best bet on Tondela x Alverca is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1479336 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is betting on Tondela worth it?

🔵 Tondela: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 33.7% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 340 times – having a profit of $510.00;
• And would lose other 660 times – losing -$660.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$150.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 33.43% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 330 times – having a profit of $693.00;
• And would have lost other 670 times – with a loss of -$670.00 because of them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$23.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Should you bet on Alverca?

🔴 Alverca: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 32.86% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.73. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 330 times – having a profit of $570.90;
• And would have lost other 670 times – with a loss of -$670.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$99.10.

Handicaps analysis for the match Tondela x Alverca

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Tondela
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Tondela x Alverca

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Tondela, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Tondela.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Tondela x Alverca

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Tondela x Alverca