Parma x Verona Betting tips for February 15 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Parma x Verona, Sunday, 15/2/2026

📅 15/2/2026 14:00

Parma 2.33

X 2.90

Verona 3.40

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Parma x Verona:

🔮 Verona wins the match
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The main points for the tip for Parma x Verona:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Parma in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-170.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Verona in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-90.0.

🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Parma vs Verona?

Lets analyze the match between Parma and Hellas Verona at Ennio Tardini Stadium, Parmas home ground. Based on recent statistics, Parma has a weak home performance, scoring an average of 0.4 goals per game and conceding 1.4 goals, with only one win in the last five home matches. Hellas Verona also struggles away, with an average of 0.6 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per away game.

Median odds indicate a slight advantage for Parma (2.31), followed by a draw (2.9), and Verona win (3.4). Converting these odds into implied probabilities gives approximately: Parma win ~43%, draw ~33%, Verona win ~24%. Considering the average goals scored/conceded and Parmas unfavorable ball possession (43% vs. 57%), along with the evident defensive difficulties of both teams, the fair probabilities seem close to these estimates.

The Bets Kenya model suggests a high odds for Parma (~3.13), indicating a low chance of the home team winning according to it; meanwhile, the predicted odds for Verona are lower (~2.64), suggesting a higher chance of them winning — this contrasts with the median odds from bookmakers that favor the home team.

Considering the statistical data: both teams have vulnerable defenses; however, the fact that the game is at Ennio Tardini slightly favors Parma, which plays on its usual field — despite recent defensive issues and suspension of key players that could negatively impact their defensive performance.

📰 News: Parma faces significant suspensions in defense, while Hellas Verona tries to recover defensive reinforcements after recent injuries; still, the visitors have offensive absences due to suspensions, making their attack more difficult in this direct clash at the lower end of the table.

📈 Positional Analysis: Both are fighting against relegation in Serie A — with Hellas Verona at the bottom and Parma just above — increasing pressure for points in this crucial match to avoid direct relegation or playoffs.

Based on this, my analysis suggests that fair odds should reflect a greater balance between a draw and a home win, considering the natural advantage of playing at home combined with the current offensive fragility of the visitors.
Estimated fair odds:
– Parma win: ~2.5
– Draw: ~3
– Verona win: ~3

Betting on the Bets Kenya model would be risky because it overestimates the visitors chances, generating a positive expected value only for this option (+32%), but it ignores factors like strong home advantage despite suspensions.

I would recommend caution or even considering bets on the “draw or Parma” market, given the expected tactical balance.
The calculated expected value for a Parma win bet is below 5%, indicating no clear value in the current odds for this option alone.

Final summary: Parma has a slight favoritism playing at home despite suspensions; Hellas Verona is underperforming but could take advantage of the opponents disorganization; the model overestimates the visiting team’s strength; my suggestion is to avoid pure win bets here or look for alternative markets like double chance favoring the home team. Good luck! ⚽🍀

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Analysis from Parma x Verona for the Italy Serie A – 15 of February

The latest news about Parma x Verona

Parma: Parma will face Bologna at Dall’Ara Stadium on Sunday, February 8, 2026, in the 24th round of Serie A; Bolognas coach, Vincenzo Italiano, confirmed that defender Lorenzo De Silvestri will miss the game due to persistent abdominal issues, while Jhon Lucumi is available after a preventive rest. Parmas team faces the suspension of four players before the match, with defenders Britschgi, Delprato, Nicolussi Caviglia, and Circati all threatened with suspension for the next round.

Hellas Verona: Hellas Verona remains at the bottom of Serie A and recently had Paolo Sammarco as interim coach, replacing Zanetti in charge for the match against Parma at Bentegodi. The club expects the return of key defensive reinforcements, such as Rafik Belghali — who suffered an ankle problem after the African Nations Cup in early January — and the German-born defender Armel Bella-Kotchap, both expected to be fit for the next game. Meanwhile, forward Gift Orban and midfielder Akpa-Akpro are serving suspensions, leaving the attack battle between Bowie and Mosquera to form a duo with Orban, probably in a 3-5-2 scheme under Sammarcos guidance.

Table analysis for the match between Parma and Verona

Parma: Parma is in 14th place with 26 points, somewhat away from the relegation zone but also far from European competition spots. With 6 points more than the relegation zone and 5 less than the team just above in the table (13th), the match against Verona is relevant to try to distance themselves further from danger and improve their position in the standings. There is still room for modest ambitions to stabilize in Serie A, so the match has moderate importance for Parma.

Verona: Verona occupies the last position, 20th place, with only 15 points and is mathematically in the relegation zone. It is practically without chances to escape this condition, as the points gap to escape is very large. Therefore, for Verona, this match does not have a decisive impact on their current situation, being a game of little importance in the fight against relegation, although it can be used to adjust the team for the future.

Summary: The game is more important for Parma, which is still fighting to move away from the relegation zone, while Verona is already practically relegated and plays the match without much pressure on the table. ⚽

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Parma x Verona

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between Parma x Verona.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Parma x Verona

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Parma x Verona right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1479336 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Should you bet on Parma?

🔵 Parma: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.94% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.33. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $425.60
• And would lose other 680 times – having a loss of -$680.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$254.40.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.18%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.90. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 300 times – this would give you a profit of $570.00
• And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$130.00.

Is betting on Verona worth it?

🔴 Verona: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 37.88% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 380 times – having a profit of $912.00;
• And would lose other 620 times – having a loss of -$620.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$292.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Parma x Verona

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Parma
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Parma x Verona

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Parma, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Parma.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Verona.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Parma x Verona

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Parma x Verona