Rio Ave x Moreirense Betting tips for February 16 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Rio Ave x Moreirense, Monday, 16/2/2026

📅 16/2/2026 20:15

Rio Ave 2.80

X 3.15

Moreirense 2.48

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Rio Ave x Moreirense:

🔮 Moreirense wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Moreirense, you can win up to $1240.00!

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Important information for your tip for Rio Ave x Moreirense:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Rio Ave in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-270.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Moreirense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-295.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Rio Ave conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from Rio Ave x Moreirense for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 16 of February

Odds and handicap movements for Rio Ave x Moreirense

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Rio Ave x Moreirense.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Rio Ave x Moreirense

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Rio Ave x Moreirense right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1479379 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Should you bet on Rio Ave?

🔵 Rio Ave: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 22.48% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.80. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $396.00;
• And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$384.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.21% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.15. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 310 times – profiting $666.50;
• And would have lost other 690 times – with a loss of -$690.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$23.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on Moreirense?

🔴 Moreirense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 46.31% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.48. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 460 times – profiting $680.80;
• And would have lost other 540 times – with a loss of -$540.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$140.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match Rio Ave x Moreirense

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Rio Ave
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Rio Ave x Moreirense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Rio Ave and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Rio Ave.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 Moreirense.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Rio Ave x Moreirense

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Rio Ave x Moreirense