AC Milan x Genoa Betting tips for December 15 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for AC Milan x Genoa, Sunday, 15/12/2024

📅 15/12/2024 19:45

AC Milan 1.29

X 5.50

Genoa 9.06

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for AC Milan x Genoa:

🔮 AC Milan wins the match
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The main points for the tip for AC Milan x Genoa: 👉 If you had bet $100 on AC Milan in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-107.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Genoa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $370.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, AC Milan scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Genoa, AC Milan scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 AC Milan matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 AC Milan is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home. 👉 AC Milan has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Genoa playing at home.

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Analysis from AC Milan x Genoa for the Italy Serie A – 15 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for AC Milan x Genoa right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1236700 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for AC Milan x Genoa

Is betting on AC Milan worth it?

🔵 AC Milan: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 92.65% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.29. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 930 times – having a profit of $269.70;
• And would lose other 70 times – losing -$70.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$199.70.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 5.85%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 60 times – this would give you a profit of $270.00
• And would lose other 940 times – having a loss of -$940.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$670.00.

Is betting on Genoa worth it?

🔴 Genoa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 1.5% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 9.06. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 20 times – having a profit of $161.20;
• And would lose other 980 times – losing -$980.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$818.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match AC Milan x Genoa

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 AC Milan
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AC Milan x Genoa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.5 AC Milan, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.5 AC Milan.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AC Milan x Genoa

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.