AC Milan x Verona Betting tips for December 28 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for AC Milan x Verona, Sunday, 28/12/2025

📅 28/12/2025 11:30

AC Milan 1.36

X 4.61

Verona 8.00

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for AC Milan x Verona:

🔮 AC Milan wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on AC Milan, you can win up to $680.00!

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Important information for your tip for AC Milan x Verona:

👉 If you had bet $100 on AC Milan in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $63.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Verona in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-90.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, AC Milan scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Verona, AC Milan scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 AC Milan has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Verona playing at home.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for AC Milan vs Verona?

Lets analyze the match between AC Milan and Verona at Giuseppe Meazza Stadium, which is AC Milans usual stadium, ensuring they have the home advantage.

📈 Table analysis: AC Milan is in a very strong position in Serie A, fighting directly for the title with Inter Milan. They have a solid campaign and need to keep up the pace to avoid losing ground. Verona is further down the table and facing recent difficulties, especially away from home. This ranking difference increases pressure on Verona to seek points away, while Milan wants to consolidate its leadership.

Recent statistics: AC Milan performs excellently at home: 3 wins in the last 5 home games without losses and a higher average of goals scored per game (2 goals) compared to the opponent (1 goal). They also have greater ball possession (53% vs. 37%) and more accurate shots per game (6 vs. 4). Verona shows poorer performance away: only 1 win in the last 5 away games with two losses.

Calculation of fair probabilities:

• The implied probability of median odds are: Milan win ~73.53%, draw ~21.68%, Verona win ~12.5%. After normalization considering the house margin, we get approximately: Milan 62%, draw 18%, Verona 20%.
• Analyzing offensive/defensive stats and recent form along with the implied odds, I estimate adjusted probabilities close to these normalized values.

Analysis of fair odds:

• The fair odds for AC Milan victory are around @1.61
• The fair odds for a draw are around @5.56
• The fair odds for Verona victory are around @5

Expected value calculations using the final odds provided:

• Expected value of the bet on Milan = ((1.38 / 1.61) -1)*100 ≈ -14%
• Expected value on draw = ((4.75 /5.56)-1)*100 ≈ -15%
• Expected value on Verona win = ((8.50 /5)-1)*100 ≈ +70%

However, this simple analysis suggests positive value only on the bet for the visiting team — but this strongly contrasts with statistical data showing clear dominance of the home team both offensively and defensively in recent matches.

News analysis 📰 :

• AC Milan faces great pressure after recent eliminations and frustrating market; however, there is significant renewal in the squad with young talents like Bartesaghi who can give extra energy to the team;
• Hellas Verona has tactical problems due to coach Zanettis suspension; a new scheme could negatively impact the team;

Given this, I believe our initial calculation underestimated Milans home strength slightly due to internal positive pressure for immediate results despite recent difficulties — that is, although the high odds given to the visitors possibility seem attractive based on the gross expected value calculated above, they do not accurately reflect the real risks involved given the current scenario of the teams.

Final suggestion 🤔 :

– I totally disagree with the exaggerated forecast made by the Clube da Aposta model indicating an almost zero probability (<2%) for Milan’s victory;
– I partially agree with traditional median odds where a strong favoritism for the home team is expected;
– My recommended bet would be to wager on Milan to win, even without strict positive expected value at current odds — because I see too high a risk in such an unlikely upset;
– I would avoid direct bets on the draw or visiting victory given the current technical/tactical conditions.

Always remember that football is unpredictable but here we have good technical arguments reinforcing the clear favoritism of the home team! ⚽🔥💰

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Analysis from AC Milan x Verona for the Italy Serie A – 28 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for AC Milan x Verona right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1456398 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

The latest news about AC Milan x Verona

AC Milan: AC Milan entered the final weeks of the 2025 season under great pressure after an early elimination from the Coppa Italia by Lazio and a disappointing defeat to Napoli, which sparked criticism that the club must win titles on the field and secure championship-level signings; recent squad news includes the amicable termination of Divock Origis contract, relieving the club of a significant salary burden after a period of limited use, while young left-back Davide Bartesaghi rose from Serie C to become a starter, securing a contract extension until 2030 and attracting interest from Premier League clubs; goalkeeper Mike Maignans renewal is being driven by coach Massimiliano Allegri, who sees him as indispensable, and midfielder Adrien Rabiot praised Maignan while encouraging the development of Leão; the summer transfer market is considered a failure, with standout arrivals like Christopher Nkunku and Sven De Winter performing below expectations, and the team still lacking a reliable center forward, making the title race against Inter tight and the squads future heavily dependent on recovering key players like Leão and possible winter signings.

Hellas Verona: Hellas Verona is experiencing an intense period at the end of the year, with coach Francesco Zanetti currently serving suspension, and the team is expected to play in a 3-5-2 formation in upcoming matches; the game against Bologna was postponed and will be rescheduled for the second week of January, while the recent match against Inter on November 2, 2025, highlighted Veronas defensive solidity despite the absence of several starters, along with the full return to training of Inter player Piotr Zieliński; emerging talent Fallou Cham, who rose from Serie D to become a regular starter this season, continues to attract attention, and young forward Bartesaghi, who scored twice against Sassuolo, is seen as an economical option for fantasy teams as the team seeks points in the busy holiday schedule.

Table analysis for the match between AC Milan x Verona

AC Milan: AC Milan is currently in 2nd place in Serie A with 32 points, just 1 point behind the leader Inter Milan. This match is very important for Milan, as a victory could put them in the lead or at least pressure the direct competitor for the title and Champions League spot. The team is still in the race for the national title and has everything to continue seeking a position that guarantees presence in the main European competition. Therefore, this confrontation is decisive to maintain and improve their position at the top of the table. ⚽🔥

Verona: Verona is in 18th place, within the relegation zone, with 12 points. They are in a tricky situation and need many points to try to get out of this dangerous zone. Despite facing a strong opponent, every point gained at this moment is crucial for their chances of staying in Serie A. Therefore, this match is vital for Verona, which seeks to avoid relegation and needs a positive result to breathe in the competition. 🚨🆘

Summary: The game is very important for both teams: for AC Milan, its a chance to fight for the title and improve their position; for Verona, its a direct battle to avoid relegation. Expect an intense and high-pressure match for both! 💥

Tips for the Match Odds market for AC Milan x Verona

Is it a good idea to bet on AC Milan?

🔵 AC Milan: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 84.97% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.36. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 850 times – profiting $306.00;
• And would lose other 150 times – losing -$150.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$156.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 13.08% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.61. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 130 times – profiting $469.30;
• And would lose other 870 times – losing -$870.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$400.70.

Is it a good idea to bet on Verona?

🔴 Verona: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 1.95% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 8.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 20 times – profiting $140.00;
• And would lose other 980 times – having a loss of -$980.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$840.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match AC Milan x Verona

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 AC Milan
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AC Milan x Verona

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.25 AC Milan, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.25 AC Milan.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AC Milan x Verona

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.50 goals.