Atalanta x Napoli Betting tips for February 22 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Atalanta x Napoli, Sunday, 22/2/2026

📅 22/2/2026 14:00

Atalanta 2.36

X 3.10

Napoli 3.10

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Atalanta x Napoli:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Atalanta x Napoli

The main points for the tip for Atalanta x Napoli:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Atalanta in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $225.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Napoli in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-80.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Atalanta scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Napoli, Atalanta scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 Atalanta matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Atalanta x Napoli, with Atalanta as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Napoli conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Atalanta conceded at least 2 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Napoli.
👉 Atalanta is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 Even as a visitor, Napoli won the last 4 head-to-head matches Atalanta´s territory

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Atalanta vs Napoli:

Lets analyze the match between Atalanta and Napoli at Gewiss Stadium, home of Atalanta, which has shown solid performance in recent home games with 4 wins and only 1 loss in the last 5 matches. The average goals scored by Atalanta at home is high (3 goals per game), while they concede little (1 goal per game). Napoli, even playing away, maintains a good offensive average (2 goals per game) but also concedes more goals (2 per game), showing a more open style.

The implied probabilities of median odds are: Atalanta win ~42.55%, draw ~32.26%, Napoli win ~32.26%. After normalization to sum to 100%, the values are close to these.

Considering recent statistics, Atalantas defensive advantage at home and their good form suggest a fair probability of around 45-48% for their victory. The draw is close to 30%, while Napolis chance to win is around 22-25% due to their higher defensive vulnerability away.

Converting these fair probabilities into estimated fair odds: Atalanta win between @2.08 – @2.22; draw @3.33; Napoli win @4 – @4.5.

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers: Atalanta is priced at @2.45, draw @3.20, and Napoli @3.00 — here we see the market values the visitor more than our fair analysis suggests, offering lower odds for Napoli compared to our fair calculation (~@4). This creates positive expected value on betting on the visitor according to our calculation.

The Bets Kenya model indicates positive value only on the visitor bet with EV +13.5%, agreeing with our analysis that sees potential value in this bet given current odds versus the calculated fair probability.

📰 News: Atalanta comes rested after a recent win and has a partial return of Scamacca, still recovering; Napoli is in a mixed moment in Serie A but strengthens the squad with players returning from injury like McTominay — this could balance forces but doesnt change much our view on Atalantas strong defensive advantage versus Napolis consistent but vulnerable attack away.

📈 League position: The match is important as both seek high positions — Napoli wants to secure a direct Champions League spot while Atalanta fights to get closer to the top spots; this need increases motivation, especially for visitors seeking important points away from home.

Suggested bet by the Bets Kenya model: Bet on Napoli to win, as it shows a positive expected value (+13.5%). I fully agree! Despite statistics showing a slight favoritism to Atalanta, current odds favor betting on Napoli very well. Its a great opportunity to seek profit in this market! ⚽🔥

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Atalanta x Napoli?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2026, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Atalanta x Napoli:

Analysis from Atalanta x Napoli for the Italy Serie A – 22 of February

The latest news about Atalanta x Napoli

Atalanta: Atalanta has returned to training after two days of rest, following their victory over Cremonese, with forward Gianluca Scamacca participating in a partial session as he continues recovering from a hip injury that kept him out of the previous league match; the medical team expects to have him available for the Serie A clash against Lazio, scheduled for tomorrow night in Rome, which will be the first of three meetings with the capital team in the next two months, in addition to the team also preparing for the Coppa Italia round of 16 match at the Olimpico on March 4.

Napoli: Napoli is experiencing a mixed period in Serie A; after a 2-2 draw with Roma, coach Antonio Conte praised the impact of the recent January signings, highlighting Brazilian forward Alisson Santos for his one-on-one ability and noting that both he and young Giovane showed humility and a desire to fight for a spot, while also addressing the uncertain situation of defender Rrahmani, reaffirming the teams ambition to secure a Champions League spot; meanwhile, midfielder Scott McTominay, who missed recent games against Como and Roma due to a gluteal inflammation, has been cleared to return to training and is expected to be available for the next match against Atalanta, as the squad continues to deal with injuries but aims to solidify its position in the league and strive for European qualification.

Table analysis for the match between Atalanta x Napoli

Atalanta: Atalanta is in 7th place with 42 points, close to the zone that qualifies for international competitions, but still outside the direct spot for the Champions League. This game against Napoli is important to try to get closer to the group that guarantees a direct spot in the Champions League, which adds pressure to score well. With few rounds remaining, a victory could be decisive to improve the standings and dream of a more advantageous place next season.

Napoli: Napoli is in 3rd place with 50 points, consolidating its spot in the Champions League. Although already within the qualification zone, the match against Atalanta is important to try to widen the gap from the competitors right behind, ensuring greater tranquility for upcoming matches and reinforcing the pursuit of a better league position.

Summary: The match is important for both teams: for Atalanta, which needs points to seek a direct spot in international competitions, and for Napoli, which can solidify its position in the top three.

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Atalanta x Napoli

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Atalanta x Napoli.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Atalanta x Napoli

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Atalanta and Napoli.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1484106 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is it worth betting on Atalanta?

🔵 Atalanta: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 41.04% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.36. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 410 times – having a profit of $557.60;
• And would have lost other 590 times – with a loss of -$590.00 because of them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$32.40, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.04% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $588.00;
• And would have lost other 720 times – with a loss of -$720.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$132.00.

Is betting on Napoli worth it?

🔴 Napoli: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.92% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 310 times – having a profit of $651.00;
• And would lose other 690 times – losing -$690.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$39.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atalanta x Napoli

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Atalanta
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atalanta x Napoli

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Atalanta, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Atalanta.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Atalanta.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atalanta x Napoli

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for Atalanta x Napoli