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Home ยป Predictions ยป Italy Serie A ยป Atalanta x Napoli Betting tips for November 25 in Italy Serie A
Saturday, 25 November 2023, 00h00 Italy Serie A
Atalanta Atalanta
PREDICTION Atalanta wins Probability 26% 1 X 2
Napoli Napoli
ODD: @2.58 Don't miss this prediction! BET NOW Don't miss this prediction!

Atalanta x Napoli Betting tips for November 25 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Atalanta x Napoli, Saturday, 25/11/2023
๐Ÿ“… 25/11/2023
17:00
Atalanta Atalanta
2.58
X
3.40
Napoli Napoli
2.62

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Atalanta x Napoli:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Atalanta wins the match
๐Ÿ’ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Atalanta, you can win up to $1290.00!

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The main points for the tip for Atalanta x Napoli:

๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Atalanta in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-77.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Napoli in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $185.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 3 matches as the home team, Atalanta scored at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 4 matches as the away team, Napoli scored at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 5 matches as the home team against Napoli, Atalanta scored at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Atalanta x Napoli, with Atalanta as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
๐Ÿ‘‰ Playing as the home team, Atalanta conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Napoli.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 7 road matches, Napoli has not lost any of them.

๐Ÿ“Š Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Atalanta x Napoli

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Summary

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Atalanta x Napoli?

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Analysis from Atalanta x Napoli for the Italy Serie A – 25 of November

๐ŸŸ๏ธ Atalanta X Napoli – Italy Serie A
๐Ÿ“… 25 of November, 2023 – 17:00
๐Ÿ”ต Atalanta – Winning probability: 59.06% | Fair line: 1.69
โšช Tied game – Probability of tied match: 14.35% | Fair line: 6.97
๐Ÿ”ด Napoli – Winning probability: 26.59% | Fair line: 3.76
โš– Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Atalanta
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
โ›ณ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Atalanta and Napoli.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1024927 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Atalanta x Napoli

Is it worth betting on Atalanta?

๐Ÿ”ต Atalanta: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 59.06%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.58. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 590 times – this would give you a profit of $932.20
  • And would lose other 410 times – losing -$410.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of ๐Ÿ’ฐ$522.20.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

โšช draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 14.35% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 140 times – having a profit of $336.00;
  • And would lose other 860 times – losing -$860.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$524.00.

Should you bet on Napoli?

๐Ÿ”ด Napoli: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 26.59% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.62. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $437.40;
  • And would lose other 730 times – losing -$730.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$292.60.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Atalanta x Napoli

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

โš– Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Atalanta
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atalanta x Napoli

โš– Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Atalanta, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Atalanta.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atalanta x Napoli

โšฝ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves