Bologna x AC Milan Betting tips for February 3 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Bologna x AC Milan, Tuesday, 3/2/2026

📅 3/2/2026 19:45

Bologna 3.44

X 3.32

AC Milan 2.08

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Bologna x AC Milan:

🔮 Bologna wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Bologna, you can win up to $1720.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Bologna x AC Milan:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Bologna in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on AC Milan in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-100.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, AC Milan scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Bologna conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, AC Milan conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Bologna conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against AC Milan.
👉 In the last 4 road matches, AC Milan has not lost any of them.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Bologna vs AC Milan?

Lets analyze the match between Bologna and AC Milan at the Renato DallAra stadium, home of Bologna. Based on recent statistics, Bologna has a modest home performance, averaging 1 goal scored and 2 goals conceded per game, with a favorable ball possession of 57%. Meanwhile, AC Milan shows a balanced away attack with an average of 1 goal scored and only 1 conceded, but with lower possession at 47%.

The implied probabilities of median odds are: Bologna win ~28.99%, draw ~30.3%, and AC Milan win ~48.31%. After normalization to sum to 100%, we get approximately: Bologna 27%, Draw 28%, AC Milan 45%. This indicates a clear favoritism for AC Milan.

Considering the offensive and defensive stats of the teams, along with Bolognas natural home advantage at Renato DallAra (the teams traditional stadium), my adjusted estimate would be around: Bologna win – 30%, Draw – 27%, AC Milan win – 43%. AC Milan is favored due to their defensive consistency away and superior technical quality.

Calculated fair odds:
Bologna: ~3.33
Draw: ~3.70
AC Milan: ~2.33

Analyzing the final odds offered by betting houses (Bologna @3.6; Draw @3.3; AC Milan @2.1), we see value in betting on Bologna because the odds are higher than the fair estimate (~3.33). Expected value (EV) calculations are:

• Bologna EV ≈ ((3.6 / 3.33) -1)*100 = +8%
• Draw EV ≈ ((3.3 / 3.7) -1)*100 = -11%
• AC Milan EV ≈ ((2.1 / 2.33)-1)*100 = -10%

Thus, despite AC Milans technical favoritism, betting on Bologna offers positive value due to the potential return.

📰News:
Bologna is on a roll after a good victory in the Europa League against Maccabi Tel Aviv by a landslide (3-0), showing recent offensive strength even with important absences like a suspension in goal.
The financial situation is active but does not directly affect the starting lineup.
On the rossonero side, AC Milan seeks important offensive reinforcements to maintain high competitiveness during the season while maintaining tactical stability under Allegri.
These news indicate motivated teams but with different challenges.

📈Table analysis:
The current position shows AC Milan better placed in Serie A, seeking to maintain pressure for the top spots, while Bologna fights to establish itself in the middle of the table.
This gives the visiting team a greater need for points but also more psychological pressure.
The extra motivation can help both sides but slightly favors the home team seeking to surprise.

Final analysis of the Bets Kenya model:
– The model suggests betting on the home team with high expected value (+38%), but I partially disagree because it underestimates the real chance given by the market for a draw and overestimates the visitors chances of losing considering their recent good form away.
– My suggestion is to bet moderately on Bolognas victory (@~3.6) as it is a contrarian bet to most houses but with good potential return given the recent tactical balance observed in the statistical data combined with recent positive news from the home team.
– I would avoid direct bets on the draw or Milan victory due to low or negative expected value calculated here.

Quick summary:
Betting on Bolognas victory offers VALUE! Despite being technically inferior to MILAN, they play at their traditional stadium where they have good possession and real chances after a recent excellent European display 🏟️⚽🔥

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Analysis from Bologna x AC Milan for the Italy Serie A – 3 of February

Latest news about Bologna x AC Milan

Bologna: Bologna secured a convincing 3-0 victory against Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Europa League group stage on January 29, with goals from Jonathan Rowe, Riccardo Orsolini, and Tommaso Pobega. Coach Vincenzo Italiano described the win as vital for the clubs ambitions in the playoffs, although the team is still on the brink of the top eight and now faces Brann from Norway in the playoffs, with a potential round of 16 clash against Roma, Genk, Dinamo Zagreb, or Freiburg. Nationally, the club is dealing with possible squad changes, as right-back Emil Holm is close to a transfer to Juventus in a swap that would send João Mário the other way, while Bologna is also pursuing Lazios forward Tijjani Noslin. Goalkeeper Andrea Skorupski is suspended, firmly establishing Rowe as the starting goalkeeper.

AC Milan: AC Milan is actively seeking an attacking partner for Christopher Nkunku, with interest in securing Jean-Philippe Mateta from Crystal Palace. Although Milan has agreed on personal terms and is ready to pay between €30 and 35 million, Palace has hardened its stance and will only release the forward once a suitable replacement is found. Additionally, Milan maintains a defensive option with former Chelsea U-21 player Alessandro Disasi. Midfielder Adrien Rabiot remains a key piece for Stefano Allegri, who has repeatedly confirmed that Rabiot will stay in the starting lineup whenever fit, while goalkeeper Mike Maignan continues to receive high praise as one of the best goalkeepers in the world. Off the field, RedBird Capital Partners finalized a refinancing package that strengthens the club’s long-term financial stability, resulting in the departure of Elliott Partners representatives Gordon Singer and Dominic Mitchell from the board, while confirming RedBird’s exclusive control over AC Milan’s strategic direction.

Table analysis for the match between Bologna x AC Milan

Bologna: Bologna is in 9th place with 30 points, far from European competition spots and also away from the relegation zone. This match gives Bologna the chance to climb a few positions in the table, but it is not decisive for their season goals, as the team is not at imminent risk of relegation nor fighting directly for an international spot. It is an important game to maintain good performance, but without too much pressure.

AC Milan: AC Milan is in 2nd place with 47 points and is firmly positioned in the Champions League qualification zone. With a comfortable lead in second place, the match is important for Milan to continue securing this prominent position, aiming to reduce points from the leader or stay ahead of direct rivals. Therefore, for Milan, it is an important confrontation to consolidate their top position and keep the title race alive.

Summary: The game is more important for AC Milan, which seeks to establish itself at the top of the table and fight for the title. For Bologna, the game is less decisive, being an opportunity to improve their position, but without direct pressure for bigger objectives at this stage of the championship.

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Bologna x AC Milan

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Bologna x AC Milan.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Bologna x AC Milan

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Bologna x AC Milan right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1473351 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is it a good idea to bet on Bologna?

🔵 Bologna: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 47.07%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.44. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 470 times – having a profit of $1146.80;
• And would lose other 530 times – losing -$530.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$616.80.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 24.55% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.32. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $580.00;
• And would lose other 750 times – losing -$750.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$170.00.

Is betting on AC Milan worth it?

🔴 AC Milan: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 28.38% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.08. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – this would give you a profit of $302.40
• And would lose other 720 times – having a loss of -$720.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$417.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Bologna x AC Milan

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Bologna
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Bologna x AC Milan

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Bologna, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Bologna.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.75, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Bologna.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Bologna x AC Milan

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Bologna x AC Milan