Bologna x Roma Betting tips for April 25 in Italy Serie A
| 📅 25/4/2026 16:00 |
 Bologna2.90 |
X 3.17 |
Roma  2.40 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Bologna x Roma:
🔮 Bologna wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Bologna, you can win up to $1450.00!
Some important points for the tip for Bologna x Roma:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Bologna in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-317.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Roma, Bologna scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Roma conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Bologna has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Roma playing at home.
🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Bologna vs Roma?
Bologna vs Roma (Serie A) – Renato Dall’Ara ⚽
The match looks like balance with a slight edge for Bologna, but not like a “blowout” game. Based on recent stats, Bologna at home scores a bit less and concedes relatively more: 5 goals for / 8 against in the last 5 at home, with 1 win and 3 losses. Roma away is also not dominant: 7 goals for / 12 against in the last 5 away, and even worse in the “same league” slice: only 2 wins in 5 games (away/same league). The key point is that both sides seem more likely to produce a tight match / low attacking volume than an open, high-margin scoreline.
Calculation of “fair” probabilities (normalized):
Bologna win: 0.39
Draw: 0.31
Roma win: 0.30
Our fair odds (projected):
Bologna @ ~2.56
Draw @ ~3.22
Roma @ ~3.33?
(Note: since the final odds are very close to each other, I adjusted the probabilities to reflect the teams’ pattern—Bologna slightly better on possession/shots in the provided window—but without overstating Roma’s strength.)
E.V. (expected value) using the final odds:
Bologna win EV ≈ (3 / 2,56 -1) *100 = +17%?
Draw EV ≈ (3,1 / 3,22 -1) *100 = -4%?
Roma win EV ≈ (2,375 / 3,33 -1) *100 = -29%?
In the end, the only bet that looks like real value here is **Bologna to win** ✅ because the market is paying close to “fair” for the draw/away side—too much for a scenario where Bologna tends to have more territorial control (average possession **59% vs 46%**) and more attacking output in the recent aggregate (**16 shots vs** **7**, with better numbers on target).
📰News that matters for the analysis:
– For Bologna, there’s a notable absence due to a left ankle sprain for left-back Nicolo Casale.
– For Roma, there’s been a positive update on recovery/fitness involving players like Rensch; also, they come into this after a closely contested recent draw vs Atalanta (1–1), keeping pressure for a Champions League spot.
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– Roma are coming under pressure in the final stretch for a European place (“just a few points”), so they tend to go for points even away—this explains part of the high draw probability.
– Still, since Bologna plays at home in a traditionally strong stadium and has a clear edge in possession/average shots in the provided window, I think they can at least turn that dominance into a real chance to win.
Bologna to win (@~3.00 in the final odds). My calculation gives a positive EV (~+17%), while the draw is slightly negative and a Roma win is strongly negative given the profile of the recent data.
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Analysis from Bologna x Roma for the Italy Serie A – 25 of April
🏟️ Bologna X Roma – Italy Serie A
📅 25 of April, 2026 – 16:00
🔵 Bologna – Winning probability: 36.64% | Fair line: 2.73
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 24.38% | Fair line: 4.1
🔴 Roma – Winning probability: 38.98% | Fair line: 2.57
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Bologna
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks
The latest news about Bologna x Roma
Bologna: Bologna, freshly knocked out in a tough Europa League quarter-final clash against Aston Villa, has announced a squad list of 24 players for the next Serie A match against Juventus on 19 April 2026. However, left-back Nicolo Casale will miss the game after suffering a sprained left ankle, while Colombian centre-back Jhon Lucumì has caught Juventus’ attention, who view him as a possible left-sided defensive option for next season.
Roma: Roma’s most recent Serie A match ended in a hard-fought 1-1 draw at home against Atalanta on 18 April 2026. Nikola Krstović put the visitors ahead before Donyell Malen’s finish was saved, and Lorenzo Hermoso levelled things up in the closing minutes; the team lined up in a 3-4-2-1 formation under Gian Piero Gasperini (Svilar; Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso; Celik, Cristante, El Aynaoui, Rensch; Soulé, El Shaarawy; Malen). With 58 points, Roma are level with Como and just a few points away from Champions League spots. Next, the schedule brings tough opponents: Bologna, Fiorentina, Parma, Lazio and Verona. The club is also managing a high-profile behind-the-scenes dynamic between Gasperini and the interim presence of Claudio Ranieri, while Cafu, the former Brazil national team captain, said Roma still have realistic chances of securing a Champions League place if they can pick up the points they need in the final stretch.
Table analysis for the match between Bologna and Roma
Bologna: Right now, Bologna are in 8th with 48 points. This match carries more weight in terms of “top-half movement/position swapping” than a direct fight for titles: a win can help them close in on Roma (6th, 58 pts) and, most importantly, secure an edge over the area between mid-table and the most hotly contested part of the standings. Since there are several teams clustered around the 45–48 point range, scoring well helps you avoid getting “stuck” in the middle.
Roma: Roma are in a much more meaningful moment in the table: they’re in 6th with 58 points and, based on the status provided, their target is tied to Conference League Qualification. The game against Bologna could be decisive for Roma to hold their position and try to lock in the spot/continental objective, especially since they come in with about a 10-point gap over Bologna (48). In short: it’s an important match to keep the momentum and, if possible, open up even more distance from the opponent.
Summary: Important for both, but for different reasons: the Roma side are playing more “for a continental objective,” while Bologna see it as a chance to score strongly and fight for gains in the middle section of the table.
Odds and handicap movements for Bologna x Roma
Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.
Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for Bologna x Roma (1X2, handicap and goals).
📊 With a variation of -4.62%, the odds for Bologna are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @3.25 for Bologna and now the odds are @3.1.
📊 With a variation of 0.00%, the odds for Draw are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @3.2 for Draw and now the odds are @3.2.
📊 The odds for Roma had a great Raised of 11.63%: the market opened with odds of @2.15 for Roma and now the odds are @2.4.
📊 The main handicap is stable: the current handicap of 0.25 for Roma is exactly the same from its opening.
📊 The Goal Market remains stable: the current handicap of 2.25 goals is exactly the same from its opening.
Tips for the 1×2 market for Bologna x Roma
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Bologna and Roma.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1530174 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Is betting on Bologna worth it?
🔵 Bologna: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 36.64% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.90. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 370 times – this would give you a profit of $703.00
- And would have lost other 630 times – with a loss of -$630.00 because of them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$73.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 24.38% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.17. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 240 times – this would give you a profit of $520.80
- And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$239.20.
Should you bet on Roma?
🔴 Roma: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 38.98% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 390 times – having a profit of $546.00;
- And would have lost other 610 times – with a loss of -$610.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$64.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Bologna x Roma
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Bologna
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Bologna x Roma
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Bologna, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Bologna.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Bologna.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Bologna x Roma
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Bologna x Roma
Who is the favourite for Bologna x Roma?
Our assessment suggests the match is evenly matched, without a defined favourite. Bologna shows a win probability of 36.64%, while Roma has a chance of 38.98%.
Who will win: Bologna x Roma?
Sports betting offers no certainties and we cannot predict the winner. This match looks very even, with no clear favourite. Bologna has a win probability of 36.64%, while Roma has a chance of 38.98%. Dont trust guaranteed wins and always bet responsibly!
What are the chances of Bologna beating Roma today?
From our analysis, in 100 encounters we forecast that Bologna would take victory in roughly 37 of them versus Roma.
What are the chances of Roma beating Bologna today?
From our analysis, in 100 encounters we forecast that Roma would take victory in roughly 39 of them against Bologna.
Which team should I bet on: Bologna or Roma?
A successful bettor looks for positive expected value opportunities. Based on our analysis, we believe the best bet for this match is: Bologna wins, with a positive expected value of 13.55%. Bet responsibly and manage your bankroll: avoid staking more than 2% of your funds!
How much is Bologna paying today? See what you can win by betting on Bologna x Roma:
The average odds for Bologna to beat Roma today are 2.90. So a KSh1000 stake could pay KSh2900.00 if Bologna wins. Bet responsibly and remember outcomes are not certain.
How much is Roma paying today? See what you can win by betting on Bologna x Roma:
The odds for Roma to beat Bologna today are around 2.40. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh2400.00 if Roma wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
