Cagliari x Monza Betting tips for March 30 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for Cagliari x Monza, Sunday, 30/3/2025

📅 30/3/2025 10:30

Cagliari 1.72

X 3.50

Monza 5.00

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Cagliari x Monza:

🔮 Cagliari wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Cagliari, you can win up to $860.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Cagliari x Monza: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Cagliari in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-120.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Monza in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 3 Monza matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Cagliari conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Monza conceded at least 2 goal(s). 👉 It is not a good time for Monza as away team: it comes from 7 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from Cagliari x Monza for the Italy Serie A – 30 of March

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Cagliari and Monza.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1291320 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Cagliari x Monza

Is it a good idea to bet on Cagliari?

🔵 Cagliari: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 74.9%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.72. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 750 times – profiting $540.00;
• And would lose other 250 times – having a loss of -$250.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$290.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 15.78% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 160 times – having a profit of $400.00;
• And would lose other 840 times – having a loss of -$840.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$440.00.

Should you bet on Monza?

🔴 Monza: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 9.32%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 90 times – this would give you a profit of $360.00
• And would have lost other 910 times – with a loss of -$910.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$550.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Cagliari x Monza

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 Cagliari
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cagliari x Monza

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.25 Cagliari, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Cagliari.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.75, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Cagliari.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cagliari x Monza

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.